Turkey may be a centuries-old Thanksgiving tradition, but recent data suggests it could be slowly starting to lose its spot on the table.
The 2023 holiday season saw the least amount of whole turkey sold since 1980, with consumption of whole turkeys at just over 4 pounds per capita. That’s according to research by Brian Earnest, an economist at CoBank.
There’s been more flexibility around what people eat for Thanksgiving, Earnest’s research suggests, perhaps pushing more people toward menu items like hams, roasts or ribs.
“I think convenience is somewhat driving that, but also smaller gatherings around the Thanksgiving table,” he said. “People may be looking for a smaller item but also something easier to cook.”
Even with last year’s lower numbers, Earnest said most shoppers are still choosing turkey for their Thanksgiving meal.
“It’s still the iconic item for Thanksgiving, and I don’t think that fades away,” he said. “But as consumer preferences change, we may look back 10 years from now and say ‘There was a shift already occurring with the younger population. They didn’t think about the pilgrims, and have that in mind when they’re preparing for the holiday.’”
A declining demand for whole Thanksgiving birds is an opportunity to Leslee Oden, who leads the National Turkey Federation as its president and chief executive officer.
Oden points to ground turkey, which has seen retail volume sales rise 5.5% since last year, according to data from early September.
“Our industry can look at innovation, education and partnerships to further educate the consumer about the versatility of turkey,” she said. “It's not just something that should be focused on the holiday season. You can take the products and adapt them to your everyday lifestyle.”
But at Leon’s Gourmet Grocer in Lincoln, Nebraska, owner Topher Vorhies said people are still buying the frozen, prepared and fresh turkeys at his store.
“To me, it seems like we’re selling the same amount of turkeys,” he said. “We have people that are calling the first part of October, asking if we’re taking fresh turkey orders.”
Vorhies said his store’s fresh, never-frozen birds may make it a niche market for turkey buyers. But he said they also sell prime rib and tenderloin roasts for people who might not like turkey.
From his viewpoint in his store, Vorhies said he expects this Thanksgiving to be a busy holiday.
“It seems like more and more people are traveling and getting together with family now that COVID is more in the rearview mirror,” he said. “I think people are going to use it as an opportunity to get together this year.”
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
