The U.S. imports more than 80% of its potash – a key compound used in fertilizer – from Canada.
That has some in the ag industry worried, given threats by the Trump administration to levy a 25% tariff on all Canadian exports. A 30-day pause on the tariffs will expire early next month.
Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that input costs, such as fertilizer, grew significantly during the Biden administration.
“I plead w [sic] President Trump to exempt potash from the tariff because family farmers get most of our potash from Canada,” Grassley wrote.
A tariff would inevitably push the price of potash up and farm profits down, said Bill Knudson, a professor at the Michigan State Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
“Just about any crop, you're using potash in some ways,” he said, “so that's going to reduce your profitability. We're already looking at, kind of a decline in farm income, especially for field crop producers in the upcoming year.”
Knudson said America’s other major exporters of potash are Belarus and Russia.
“They're not necessarily the most reliable suppliers,” he said.
Nutrien, Canada’s largest potash producer said in a statement that “the agriculture industry requires free trade and accessible markets.” In addition, Nutrien said they “support diplomatic measures fostering cooperation and remain hopeful for constructive dialogue between Canada and the United States.”
Bob Thompson, president of the Michigan Farmer’s Union said their members are trying to make sense of the potential tariff fight. He said any added costs brought by a tariff will be passed down to individual farmers.
“We have no way of recouping that cost typically, because crops generally are sold at the whim of whatever the market is, rather than allowing us to set our own price,” he said.
Despite that, Thompson said many farmers have likely already bought what they needed for the growing season.
“I don't look for the impact to be as great as it might have been for this spring planting,” he said. “I think that it will probably, will certainly have an effect on those that did not pre-buy. And further down the road, that'll be an added cost.”
A proposed potash mine in Osceola County, Michigan, could provide a major boost for production. The company expects to produce 800,000 tons of potash annually.
The mine, run by the Michigan Potash and Salt Company, is waiting to see if a loan worth at least $1.1 billion dollars will move forward under the Trump administration. The loan received conditional approval by the Department of Energy just days before former President Joe Biden left office. Michigan Potash and Salt Company declined to comment for this story.
Thompson said a potash mine in Michigan would help drive down input costs.
“The less transportation you have to get the product to the farm is going to be a very significant win for local farmers, particularly here in central Michigan where I'm at,” he said.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.