Everyday consumers and the dairy industry have not seen broad changes to the milk on store shelves or the broader markets four months after the first cattle tested positive for bird flu.
While individual farmers may have lost out on revenue, the broader economy has been spared because the outbreaks of avian influenza have been fairly contained and not widespread, according to academics who study dairy markets and industry groups.
While a case hasn’t been reported in Missouri or Illinois, 160 cow herds in 13 U.S. states have reported positive tests, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. There are 24,094 dairy farms nationwide, according to the 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture.
“Rather fortunately for the industry and for consumers, we haven't seen major impacts yet,” said Chuck Nicholson, a University of Wisconsin–Madison agricultural economics professor. “I will hope that we don't see major impacts going forward, but, with any kind of epidemiological situation that we have going on, the future can be quite uncertain.”
Since late March when tests first confirmed bird flu in dairy cattle, milk prices have held steady and will likely tick up slowly, Nicholson said. While there is little data on dairy consumer trends, there is little evidence to suggest that bird flu has spooked them either.
“It's not been something that has been affecting the consumer marketplace, and we haven't seen signs of it,” said Alan Bjerga, a spokesperson for the National Milk Producers Federation. “Honestly, if there were to be a panic, you would think that it would have happened by now.”
As of May, the latest available month, the industry price of milk — or what farmers are paid — stood at $22 per 100 pounds, USDA data shows.
If avian flu spreads more dramatically across the country, however, consumers and the dairy industry could notice, Nicholson said.
When cows test positive for bird flu, their milk is not put on the market for a couple weeks. Lactating cows sick with the virus can get a fever and produce a thickened, discolored milk. Generally within 30 days, most animals recover but their milk production may not return to normal right away, said Mark Ernst, Illinois’ State Veterinarian.
Under normal market circumstances, a decrease of just a couple percentage points of milk production in the U.S. can boost the industry price of milk. In turn, some of those hikes are typically passed onto consumers.
Whether or not that happens depends on the future trends of the virus, Nicholson said.
“Nothing to say that that will happen — but we don't have anything yet to say that it won't happen,” he said. “So I think it really is kind of a stay tuned situation.”
Several Midwestern states have ramped up testing for the virus. Iowa and Michigan have opted for more requirements than others.
The USDA recently announced the federal agency will pay dairy farmers with infected cattle 90% of the value of the milk lost, somewhat similar to crop insurance.
In Illinois, the state department of agriculture recently said it will require testing for lactating dairy cattle for exhibitions — like county and state fairs — to avoid spreading bird flu.
“It really has not been detrimental to the dairy industry like what the poultry industry faced a couple of years ago,” said Tasha Bunting, the executive director of the Illinois Milk Producers.
While cattle often make a full recovery from the virus, poultry do not. To avoid further spreading, animal health officials require all birds in the infected flock are killed. Since this version of the highly pathogenic avian influenza first appeared in 2022, more than 99 million birds have died due to the virus, according to the USDA.
The dairy industry is now focusing on messaging around the bird flu in order to reassure customers that milk products are safe, Bunting said.
“The dairy products that they’re purchasing at the stores are going through a vetted process that ensures the health and safety of that product because of pasteurization,” she said.
Keeping consumers happy is important given the history of American milk consumption.
Demand for milk as a beverage has been dropping since the middle of the 20th century, USDA data shows. Per capita, consumption is down from 33.4 gallons per year in 1945 to 15.6 gallons in 2021.
As a whole, the decrease in demand for dairy products is much smaller because the American population continues to grow. Milk consumed as a beverage also only accounts for about 30% of overall consumption. The demand for other milk products, like cheese, is growing, Nicholson said.
“In terms of the total demand for milk products, both within the U.S. and outside of the U.S., we're still on a growth path despite that beverage milk trend going down,” he said.
Oddly enough, anecdotal evidence suggests milk consumption actually rose in some places in the few weeks following the first reports of bird flu in dairy cattle, which is not what the industry expected, Bjerga said.
“In some ways — almost counterintuitively — it may have reminded people just how valuable milk is to their diet,” he said.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
