More people are moving to the St. Louis metropolitan area, but experts warn that declining births will eventually impact the region’s economy.
On Thursday, the U.S. Census Bureau published its population estimates for 2024, showing that the 15 counties across the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area gained 6,420 new people last year, which is the region’s largest increase since 2010.
However, the City of St. Louis lost 3,077 residents last year, dropping its population to 279,695, according to estimates. Data shows that in 2023, 2.79 million people were living in the region, compared to 2.82 million in 2020.
Ness Sandoval, a professor of demography and sociology at St. Louis University, said he’s paying attention to three things in his research: population trends, natural population change and immigration trends.
Although the census shows a population increase in the region, the number of people born there is declining, Sandoval said. The regional surge is due to the arrival of immigrants, he said, which has been strong enough to offset the region’s negative domestic migration numbers.
He said the St. Louis region may not feel the impact now, but it will in about 25 years. Clinton County, Warren County, St. Louis, Lincoln County and St. Charles County are among those not seeing a decline in natural births, however.
“Most metropolitan regions have more babies born than people dying,” Sandoval said. “Unfortunately, we live in a region (where) that's not the case, and so just about every county has more people dying than are born.
“The impact is going to be felt around 2045, 2050, then there's going to be a smaller workforce that will be entering into our area, and the only way you can offset that is through net migration. So that's where the positive news was,” he said.
For decades, St. Louis has seen a steady population decline. Mayor Tishaura Jones said the regional increase is encouraging despite the city’s ongoing loss.
“While our city has experienced population loss for decades, these numbers show that we continue to slow that decline, with the goal of reversing it,” Jones said in a statement. “People want to move to a city that is safe, welcoming, fun and has a successful school system.”
She also noted President Donald Trump's efforts against immigration, adding that St. Louis remains a welcoming city for immigrants. She said she believes their presence in the city is needed to reverse negative population trends.
Sandoval said the city could see its population dip below 265,000 in the next three years if local leaders don't start talking more about policies and issues important for families with children.
Greater St. Louis Inc. interim CEO Dustin Allison said the region needs to act now to protect the future economy.
“If we are going to achieve the type of long-term growth our region needs, we must also continue to focus on advancing policies, increasing economic investment, and growing the number of high-quality jobs necessary to attract people from other areas of the country,” Allison said in a statement.
