This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: August 6, 2008 - The heated battle for the Democratic nomination in the race to become Missouri's top lawyer will probably not end soon.
On Wednesday the secretary of state's website gave state Sen. Chris Koster, D-Harrisonville, the lead with 118,648 votes and 34.3 percent of the vote. State Rep. Margaret Donnelly of Richmond Heights won 117,862 votes, or 34.1 percent of the vote -- 0.2 percent fewer votes than Koster. Donnelly has not yet conceded, so both she and Koster may still be fighting for the chance to take on state Sen. Michael Gibbons, R-Kirkwood, in November.
Still, Koster's campaign called the race his victory. "After such a hard-fought campaign, a very close race, Representative Donnelly is entitled to this personal decision," said spokesperson Danny Kanner. "That said, Senator Koster has built a coalition and is now moving forward as the Democratic Party's nominee."
Donnelly's team is waiting for the Secretary of State to certify the election results, a process that can take up to two weeks. Following certification, Donnelly's team will weigh its options and consider requesting a recount.
Could Donnelly win a recount?
"Usually recounts don't make much of a difference," said David Robertson, professor of political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and a KSDK-TV political analyst. "Koster was able to do quite well in his region, and Donnelly was able to do well in her region. Harris was stuck in between. He wasn't able to break into areas outside of Columbia."
Robertson said that Donnelly showed she had a good deal of support. "People were willing to come out to the polls for her. It made it a closer race. Koster had a good deal of support and endorsements and tried to use them in St. Louis County to hold Donnelly's margin down a bit." He added that many people were surprised to see Harris dramatically trail Koster and Donnelly.
House Minority Leader Jeff Harris, who has represented his hometown of Columbia since 2002, came in third with 25 percent of the vote, and Molly Williams, a Kansas City school teacher, finished last with 6.7 percent.
A political unknown, Williams did no campaigning, yet she still won 23,096 votes. During Donnelly's election-night party at the Crowne Plaza, supporters seemed upset that Williams had siphoned off so many votes. Williams' vote total led to speculation on why she had entered the race at all.
"People will raise questions: Was Williams a stalking horse candidate for Koster? No one will be able to know that unless someone comes out and says it," Robertson said.
Koster has denied any affiliation with Williams' campaign, saying he doesn't even know her. "Did she take away votes from Donnelly?" Robertson asked. "She might have taken away the 750 votes, which could have pushed Donnelly over the edge. We are probably never going to know for sure."
Counting and Recounting the Vote
Dick Bauer, assistant director of the St. Louis County Board of Elections, notes there is a "hard and fast" two-week deadline to complete the tabulation and certification of votes, and this race probably won't be settled long before then. "In the latest batch from St. Louis County, Margaret Donnelly did pick up a few more votes from Mr. Koster," Bauer said. "Keep in mind we have provisional ballots out across the state that have not been counted yet."
In the 2004 presidential election, controversy swirled around the interpretation of voter eligibility and provisional ballots. Provisional ballots record votes from voters whose eligibility may be questioned. Bauer said that they could arise from clerical errors, refusal to show identifying documents, misinformation or misspelled information supplied by a voter. "At this point, we're just waiting for the votes to be counted and be accumulated," Bauer said.
Twenty states use automatic recount laws, which immediately trigger recounts if the gap between candidates is in a certain margin. In Missouri, recounts are not automatic. This means that a candidate has to file a petition within a certain amount of days.
If Koster is still winning by a margin of less than 1 percent once Missouri's 116 counties sort through their provisional ballots, Donnelly is entitled to request a recount. Bauer guessed that the gap would remain below 1 percent even after the provisional ballots have been counted. The recount request would then proceed through the courts.
Previously, Bauer said, recounts have taken one day to complete once mandated. A report by Monideepa Talukdar and Rob Richie released in July 2007 by Fair Vote Research analyzed and quantified statewide election recounts from 1980-2006. The report found that recounts are very rare, and that usually recounts don't result in significant changes. During the years surveyed, there was fewer than one recount a year, and only twice did the recount change the outcome. After a recount, the average percentage change in the vote was .041 percent.
Robertson said that recounts often have little effect on results: "Sometimes, though, I've seen a number of recounts that add to a winner's margin instead of cutting."
Joy Resmovits is a Beacon intern.