This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: August 7, 2008 - As state Rep. Margaret Donnelly's campaign waits for the secretary of state's certification of Tuesday's primary results, state Sen. Chris Koster, D-Harrisonville, is forging ahead as the Democratic nominee for attorney general.
"After such a hard-fought campaign, a very close race, Rep. Donnelly is entitled to this personal decision," said Koster's spokesperson Danny Kanner. "That said, Sen. Koster has built a coalition and is now moving forward as the Democratic Party's nominee."
Today Koster spoke at a United for Change rally in Independence with all of the Democratic statewide candidates. His campaign is also planning a debate against the Republican nominee for attorney general, state Sen. Michael Gibbons of Kirkwood.
On Wednesday, the secretary of state's website gave Koster the lead with 118,648 votes and 34.3 percent of the vote. Donnelly of Richmond Heights won 117,862 votes, or 34.1 percent of the vote -- 0.2 percent fewer votes than Koster. Donnelly has not yet conceded.
Koster received a separate piece of good news Wednesday, when the Ethics Commission dismissed the nine complaints against Koster, his campaign and a separate committee that gave him money.
Meanwhile, Missouri's 116 counties are tallying provisional ballots -- the election boards interpret the eligibility of questionable ballots -- and the Donnelly campaign is waiting until the secretary of state certifies the election's results. The office has a hard deadline to complete certification within two weeks of the election, and Dick Bauer, assistant director of the St. Louis County Board of Elections, has said that the process will probably not be complete before then.
Once the votes are certified, candidates who have lost by less than 1 percent may request a recount. Already, Steve Eagleton, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for state Senate in District 15, is calling for a recount after losing by 35 votes, or less than 1 percent, to James Trout. (Trout won 5,165 votes to Eagleton's 5,130 votes.)
Donnelly's campaign manager, Daniel Nava, has said that once the results are certified, the campaign will decide whether to pursue a recount. If Donnelly does, the election doesn't necessarily end when the votes are re-tabulated. Down the line, the election can be challenged in court if the campaign has a legal basis for contesting the way the recount was conducted.
To recount or not to recount
Statistically, recounts rarely change the outcome of elections. Sometimes, they even widen the winner's margin. Mark "Thor" Hearne is an expert in election and recount law, thanks to his experience in Missouri's most recent statewide recounts. Hearne also served as legal counsel to the Bush-Cheney national campaign in 2004 and worked for Bush-Cheney in Florida during the 2000 recount. Hearne said a candidate must consider several factors when contemplating a recount.
First, Donnelly would have to decide on a statewide recount or a recount in selective counties. For discussion's sake, said Hearne, assume that a county has 100,000 ballots. In a recount, that county would probably find 10 uncounted ballots. If the original votes were split in a 60-40 for Koster, the 10 new ballots would probably have a similar breakdown -- six for Koster and four for Donnelly. To adjust the results in her favor, Donnelly could request recounts only in counties she carried heavily, such as St. Louis city and county.
Koster could then challenge the selective recount in court. This situation would mirror the most infamous recount in recent history: the 2000 presidential election.
If Donnelly's campaign requested a statewide recount, the price tag could hit $250,000, said Hearne. The costs would include general legal fees, which cover any court appearances, assembling a team and managing logistics. Both Koster and Donnelly would need to have people monitoring the recount to make sure it is conducted fairly.
"A hotly fought recount would be at least that much," Hearne said. "If it's worth the effort to do the recount, you need to spend the resources to do it the right way." If a recount is run cheaply, he said, "That's not fighting, it's merely observing."
A statewide recount could also be expensive for the election board. There would be very little consistency since each recount would be under the jurisdiction of each county's election board, not state oversight.
On Tuesday, voters had the option of using touch-screen machines or Opti-scan paper ballots. Hearne said that because of human error, Opti-scan recounts change results more often and by wider margins. Opti-scan ballots are sometimes filled out improperly: Voters may circle candidates' names, cross out names or simply write "yes" or "no" next to names.
Recounts are performed manually. Teams of two election officials review each ballot. "Opti-scan leaves itself open for something more subjective for the people doing the recount," Hearne said.
Hearne worked as counsel during the first Missouri recount using Opti-scan ballots. Generally, statewide primary recounts are rare, but the 2008 Missouri primary elections could have two recounts this season -- Eagleton - Trout and Donnelly - Koster. "Missouri is known for having these close elections," Hearne said. "You look at almost any state, and Missouri has them more often."
Joy Resmovits is an intern at the Beacon.