This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, August 8, 2008 - A less than scintillating ballot -- not the heat -- is most to blame for an election day turnout that saw fewer than one in five registered voters casting primary ballots in Missouri on Tuesday, says a St. Louis authority on the American electorate.
"That's bull," said Kenneth Warren, reacting to comments that temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s was a major factor in keeping voters away from the polls. Warren is a professor of political science and public policy at Saint Louis University and is president of The Warren Poll. He has polled for Democratic candidates.
"Let's face it," he said, "this wasn't a wicked snowstorm or a thunder and lightning storm."
Instead, he said, voters most likely stayed away because the day's top contest -- the race between Republicans Sarah Steelman and Kenny Hulshof -- simply did not inspire large numbers of registered voters. Combined, Hulshof and Steelman won 371,306 GOP votes. In contrast, the GOP presidential primary in February saw 588,849 ballots cast.
Warren said many of those who did not vote believe that neither Hulshof nor Steelman can compete with Democratic frontrunner Attorney General Jay Nixon in the November election.
"It is common sense that when an election is not perceived as meaningful, the turnout will be less," he said.
He said a Democratic primary contest for the attorney general nomination, which was also part of the primary ballot, "is not going to put a fire in the bellies of many voters.
"People simply do not vote in state primaries."
In an interview Thursday with the Beacon, Warren also said that Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's pre-election estimate that voter turnout would be about 31 percent was so high as to be "ridiculous."
He said he knew when he heard the projection that the vote total would not approach that figure. A day after the primary, Carnahan announced the turnout at 18.9 percent of registered voters, or some 755,000 of the state's 4 million registered voters. Turnouts in some parts of the state, such as the city of St. Louis, were even lower.
The secretary of state's office said that the 31 percent prediction was actually based on the estimated voter turnout sent to them by all the local election officials around the state. The secretary of state combines all the predictions sent by the election officials in counties and cities across Missouri to get the statewide number.
Turnouts for Missouri primary votes usually are much less than for general elections.
Two years ago, the primary election day turnout was 17.1 percent; in 1998 it was just 15.1 percent, according to figures supplied by Carnahan's office. In 1994 and 1996, the turnout was a little over 21 percent. In 2000, it was a little over 20 percent, and in 2002, a little over 25 percent. The turnout numbers are based on the vote totals for those candidates at the top of the primary ballot.
The highest primary turnout in recent years was in 2004 when Carnahan said 35.7 percent of the state's registered voters went to the polls. That was the year that Missourians came out in force to decide, in effect, whether to ban gay marriage in the state.
Warren also said Thursday that he can't envision a "perfect storm" whereby Hulshof will beat the Democratic gubernatorial candidate and current attorney general, Jay Nixon, in the November general election.
"It would be very tough," he said.
Nixon is simply too strong in both urban and rural areas of the state, Warren said.
It was voters who knew Hulshof the best -- those in Hulshof's own 9th congressional district -- that allowed Hulshof to pull away from Steelman and win the nomination on Tuesday.
Hulshof didn't simply win the votes in the majority of those counties; he took them in landslides.
In Boone County, for instance, he beat Steelman nearly 6 to 1. In Cole County it was better than 2 to 1. The results in more rural counties in north and northeast Missouri were even more astounding.
Hulshof beat Steelman by a nearly 9 to 1 margin in Randolph County. In Clark County, Hulshof's margin was 440 to 27, or more than 16 to 1.
Warren said he does not expect Hulshof to do nearly that well in his 9th District come November because independent voters are likely to shift to Nixon.
Even worse for Hulshof, voter turnout in the urban areas in and near St. Louis and Kansas City will be two to three times higher than in the primary. And the majority of those voters will cast ballots for Nixon.
"When the turnout is large, it allows the metro areas to start dominating an election," he said.
He said Hulshof's only real hope in winning would be if Nixon would be seen as too close to probable Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama. If that happens -- and if there is an overwhelming hesitancy over voting for a black man as president -- it could affect Nixon's chances.
"Race will be a factor in the November election," Warren said. "Everybody knows that.
"But to what extent? Nobody knows that."