This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Feb. 3, 2010 - As supporters of Bill Brady hold their breath to see whether he will become the Republican nominee in the 2010 Illinois gubernatorial race, they have a lot of company -- the Democratic Party of Illinois.
"If the candidate is Brady, it's a lot better for the Democrats than if it's Dillard," said Charles Wheeler, a long-time observer of state politics who is the director of public affairs reporting at the University of Illinois, Springfield.
That's because Brady, an Illinois senator and construction company owner from downstate Bloomington, is a strong fiscal and social conservative. He believes the state's $11 billion-plus budget gap is best filled by tax cuts, spending cuts and privatizing Medicaid. He believes abortion is OK only if needed to save the life of the mother, believes creationism should be taught in schools and is a proponent of concealed carry gun laws.
In contrast, his closest challenger is Kirk Dillard, a conservative but pragmatic Republican legislator from west suburban Chicago who was attacked in the final days of the campaign for his support of Barack Obama for president.
"If it's Dillard, the Democrats have got some real problems," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Institute of Politics at Southern Illinois University. "He's a moderate guy who knows government, in the Jim Edgar image."
At last count, Brady and Dillard were only a few hundred votes apart. The race is so close that talk of a recount already has surfaced.
On the Democratic side, incumbent Pat Quinn has claimed victory, but challenger Dan Hynes, currently the Illinois comptroller, has yet to concede, despite a 5,000-plus vote lead for Quinn. It likely is only a matter of time before Hynes bows out, but there are a few whispers of a recount on the Democratic side as well.
While it's not completely clear who will be the gubernatorial contenders -- and it could be weeks or longer before we know for sure -- it's also not at all clear how the race will shake out.
That is at least partly because of the very long time between the very early primary (it was moved up in the 2008 primary to give favorite son Barack Obama an early boost in his presidential quest) and the November election. As more than one pundit pointed out, that's enough time to conceive and give birth to a child.
In the world of Illinois politics, it's enough time to start and finish a legislative session, to fix or worsen a budget deficit already at $11 billion-plus and to begin and perhaps end the corruption trial of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who has vowed to take others down with him.
Any of those issues could swing the election in unpredictable ways.
Consider the Blagojevich corruption trial.
"From everything he's done so far, it looks like there will be an attempt by Rod Blagojevich to lash out and harm those people who have dissed him," Wheeler said. "That's great fodder for the Republicans. He'll be ripping the Democrats for stealing the seat from him. But it might be good for the Democrats ... [who can say] 'If Blagojevich doesn't like me, that must mean I'm one of the good guys.' It's going to be interesting street theater for a while."
Less entertaining will be the bloodbath over the state budget.
"There ought to be a serious revenues discussion this spring, but that conversation is never as to-the-point as it ought to be," said Marj Halperin, a democratic strategist.
Yepsen, however, suggested that Quinn might be able to parlay his primary victory into some legislative action.
"It gives him more clout with the Legislature. That's currency he can spend. He can go to the Legislature and say, 'We've got to produce something. We've got to turn this around. We've got to show we can produce on ethics and jobs and the economy so we have a record,'" Yepsen said. "That's one of the advantages of this early primary. The Legislature has a couple of months to do something."
Cindy Richards is a freelance journalist.