This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Jan. 5, 2011 - As the Missouri Legislature officially begins its new session today, the state's top officials -- Gov. Jay Nixon and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder -- are preparing for what may be the unofficial launch in two weeks of their likely 2012 battle.
On Jan. 19, Nixon, the state's top Democrat, will deliver his third State of the State address. Kinder, the state's top Republican, is expected to deliver his third GOP response.
But this month's face-off -- which will be viewed on the web and perhaps on television -- could well take on more significance because Kinder is widely seen as the state GOP's consensus choice to take on Nixon in 2012. No other major Republican has shown public interest in the contest.
Kinder has made no secret of his desire to challenge Nixon, although the lieutenant governor has not officially announced for the post. Republican sources say that Kinder is expected to declare his candidacy formally during the party's annual statewide Lincoln Days festivities in late February in Springfield, Mo.
(Kinder used Lincoln Days in 2008 to declare that he wasn't running for the job that year, in what turned out to be a futile effort by top GOP leaders to avoid a primary for the annointed Republican, then-U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, tapped to take on Nixon. Although Kinder dropped out, Sarah Steelman stayed in. Nixon handily defeated Hulshof.)
Nixon and Kinder have had a strained relationship since both took office in January 2009, with Kinder complaining often of the lack of communication.
If money talks, though, Nixon has made it loud and clear that he's not ignoring the likely challenge by Kinder or some other Republican.
The governor has raised at least $700,000 since the Nov. 2 election, just in donations of more than $5,000. Kinder's over-$5,000 donations in the last two months total just $25,000.
Nixon says that his Jan. 19 address "will detail his legislative and economic priorities'' for 2011, much as his previous two addresses have focused on various initiatives -- most of them dealing with the economy and education.
Kinder, say several GOP allies, is expected in his response to hammer hard at the governor -- citing, in particular, Nixon's failure to deliver on many of the promises he made during his 2008 campaign and even in his previous State of the State speeches.
Nixon has said repeatedly over the last two years that the economic downturn put a serious crimp in his campaign themes. The most notable example is his 2008 call for reversing many of the state's 2005 Medicaid cuts that curbed or eliminated coverage for about 300,000 low-income, elderly and handicapped Missourians.
Nixon made an unsuccessful attempt in 2009 to restore coverage to 35,000 Missourians, at no cost to the state, but the plan was blocked by Republican legislators in the state House.
(Click here to read the latest comparison between Nixon's campaign promises and his record, by Associated Press Jefferson City correspondent David Lieb.)
The governor is expected to continue emphasizing his commitment to bipartisan negotiations with the GOP-controlled Legislature, although some Republicans predict that this session will see more conflict. Some Republican leaders want to prevent Nixon from achieving anything major this session so he had little to trumpet on the campaign trail.
Regardless of what happens with the Legislature, this year's State of the State address will offer Nixon an opportunity to tout the state's undeniably improved economic outlook.
Although the 2012 state budget will be austere, his budget officials cite the news that the state's revenue figures have shown significant improvement in recent months, after two years of declines.
December's numbers, released Tuesday, were particularly rosy.
Expect Nixon to point out that good news on Jan. 19 -- and for Kinder to ignore it. Sort of the reverse of their usual dealings during the past two years.