This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Sept. 7, 2011 - Given the colossal impact that 9/11 made on debates about the emerging international order, it is profoundly ironic that the key trends in September 2011 much more closely resemble those of September 1991, when the disintegration of the Soviet Union began, than September 2001 after the attacks on New York and Washington.
After 9/11 the terms of debate about world politics changed dramatically. A pessimistic mood replaced the optimistic outlook of the post-Cold War era, and commentators heralded a new "age of terror." The Bush administration's response to 9/11 through the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq further underscored the attention given to the terrorist challenge and America's reaction to it.
Today terrorism remains a critical global issue - witness the attacks in Bali in 2002, Madrid in 2004, the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005 and the Mumbai attacks of 2008 and 2011. The United States continues to face threats within and outside its homeland foreseeable future. While the death of Osama Bin Laden in March was a major blow to Al-Qaeda, he has already been replaced as its leader. The downing of a Chinook helicopter in Afghanistan in August with the loss of 38 lives is a grim reminder that we live in troubled times.
More frighteningly, the revelation than Osama Bin Laden was living in close proximity to the home of the military establishment of an unstable country with more than 100 nuclear weapons raises the chilling prospect of nuclear terrorism.
Leadership by "the Rest"
Yet the most important development of the last decade occurred quietly and behind the scenes while commentators focused on 9/11 and America's military response. This was the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) as major players in the world economy, and a host of other developing countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico, Peru and South Africa following in their wake. In 2010, Paraguay recorded a staggering growth rate exceeding 14 percent.
The result of this massive development in emerging economies has been a renewed and intensified wave of globalization on an unprecedented and genuinely worldwide scale. 9/11 increased the transactions costs associated with globalization by making international travel harder. Yet this in no way stopped globalization from gathering enormous momentum over the past decade.
The difference today is that globalization is being led by "the rest" rather than being led by 'The West' as it was in the 1990s. Globalization is a decentralized process that is not controlled entirely by any state or set of states. Indeed, real globalization is what happens next - when the BRICs start to overtake the United States and the leading European economies in terms of their share of world GDP.
The intensification of globalization that triggered the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago produced a wave of democratic revolutions mainly clustered in Eastern Europe. These were the world's first "television revolutions," with demonstrations spreading from country to country through the influence of the media. While some of these revolutions failed (notably in Russia itself), the net result was a huge expansion of the democratic community.
Arab Spring
The modernization taking place in the developing world today will have similar results that will be replicated on a global (rather than a regional) scale. The Arab Spring of 2011, which is gathering pace with the demise of Gaddafi's regime in Libya and growing isolation of Syria, reflects the way in which economic development and the rapidly spreading influence of social networking communications technology has fatally undermined the legitimacy of authoritarian rule for many states in the Middle East.
In a curious twist of fate, Ayman al-Zawahri became the leader of Al-Qaeda shortly after the collapse of the Mubarak regime in Egypt. Al-Zawahri joined Al-Qaeda to attempt to overthrow the authoritarian regime in Egypt. Yet Mubarak's downfall was not achieved through violence, but by peaceful protest from Egypt's young, educated emerging middle class. Democratizing trends in the Middle East have sidelined Al-Qaeda's role in the Arab Spring and have shown that its violent tactics are misdirected.
The Arab Spring may not produce stable democratic transitions in the countries it has affected. Tunisia and Egypt have a relatively small middle class, little history of democracy and partially developed civil societies. In Libya, Syria and Yemen, the preconditions for democracy are further lacking. However, the proximity of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt to the European Union provides realistic hope that these states will follow the path taken by the East European countries in the 1990s.
Lessons from the Balkans
If the post conflict situation in Libya can be stabilized, this would greatly enhance further the prospects for democratic transitions in its neighbors to the west and east. The appropriate model for the Libyan conflict is the 1999 Kosovo War. Air power combined with support for military action from the democratic community toppled Gaddafi, paving the way for NATO and EU expansion into the Middle East. If a cluster of Arab states in northeast Africa were to follow the path that Turkey has blazed toward prosperity and democracy in the Islamic world, the consequences for the Middle East would be massive.
Just 18 years ago, the Balkans were mired in a brutal civil war that makes today's conflict in Libya and Syria appear tame. Due partly to their proximity to the EU, the Balkan countries are now lining up to become democracies. The subdued reaction in Belgrade to Serbia handing over Ratko Mladic for trial at The Hague war crimes tribunal in May was in stark contrast to the rapturous welcome received there by the Serbian winner of Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic, a month later. In Serbia, times have changed in ways that few could have hoped for in the 1990s.
Even if the Arab Spring fails or only partially succeeds, it is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the changes being brought to world politics by globalization. By 2030, more than 2 billion people are expected to enter the global middle class. This is approximately six times the current population of America. As modernization takes hold, the result will be a further wave of democratic transitions across the developing world, as occurred in Eastern Europe after 1989. Some of these transitions will fail, but taken as a whole these trends will lead to more and more states moving toward democracy.
Social Networks
A controversial line from "The Social Network" ("Bosnia - they don't have roads but they have Facebook") amusingly captures the way social networking technologies have spread rapidly across the developing world. It is no coincidence that China bans social networking websites. The Chinese government realized long before the Arab Spring just how dangerous these technologies could be for authoritarian regimes. Social networking websites have resolved the collective action problem faced by demonstrators seeking to mobilize revolutions. They are now making their impact felt in very profound ways.
Similarly, it is not for nothing that Zuckerberg is being hailed as the new Gutenberg. Just as the printing press laid the foundations for democratic reforms across Europe, social networking technologies will facilitate spread of freedom of expression in the developing world today.
Paradoxically, therefore, in September 2011 world politics very much resembles the situation of early September 1991, when the Soviet Union was in its death throes as a result of the failed August Coup to depose Mikhail Gorbachev. The "television revolutions" of Eastern Europe have found their echoes in the "Facebook revolutions" in the Middle East. The difference is that forces of change are no longer largely confined to the former communist world and are spreading on a worldwide scale.
In his influential Mansion House Speech in London on May 4, the British Foreign Secretary William Hague asserted that the "eruption of democracy movements across the Middle East and North Africa is, even in its early stages, the most important development of the early 21st century, with potential long term consequences greater than either 9/11 or the global financial crisis of 2008."
In making this assertion he was substantially correct. With the benefit of hindsight, 9/11 was not the major disjuncture in world politics that commentators hailing a new age of terror claimed it to be. 9/11 had a profoundly important effect on global affairs that continues to this day. Yet compared to the changes being brought by the intensification of globalization and the worldwide spread of democracy this is bringing in its wake, its significance for the overall trajectory of development of world politics must be understood in much larger perspective.
Ewan Harrison is a lecturer in political science and assistant dean in the College of Arts and Sciences at Washington University, where he also teaches classes on international relations for the Masters in International Affairs Program in University College.