Three candidates stand out in the nine-person Republican primary for Missouri governor: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, state Sen. Bill Eigel and Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe.
The race among those three has gotten closer throughout the primary campaign. That closeness has even translated to an endorsement by former President Donald Trump.
Trump didn’t really make a choice. Instead, he gave his seal of approval to all three of the leading candidates, saying: “You can’t go wrong.”
In a poll released by national polling firm ARW Strategies conducted in late June, Kehoe led at 23.6% while Eigel and Ashcroft were almost tied, at 19.2% and 18.9% respectively.
A different poll issued by Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout shows Ashcroft and Kehoe tied at 29% with Eigel at 18%.
Ashcroft and Eigel have framed themselves as political outsiders and disrupters with Kehoe campaigning on stability.
Although there are policy differences among the candidates, Anita Manion, assistant professor of political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said this is also a race of personalities.
“Do you want someone who's going to shake things up in Jefferson City? Are you looking for, you know, continuity and stability, and more traditional Republican approaches?” Manion said.
Ashcroft’s name recognition
Ashcroft has served as Missouri’s secretary of state the past eight years. He says actions in office qualify him to be governor.
“I've actually been moving conservative policy forward to increase the opportunity for all Missourians while my competitors have been selling Missouri for their own political and personal gain,” Ashcroft said.
Ashcroft has attacked Kehoe and Eigel for their ties to the current state legislature.
Manion said name recognition has benefited Ashcroft’s campaign.
“He has name recognition from the office he's held, but also because of his father, who was a very popular politician from Missouri,” Manion said.
Manion said it also means voters are less likely to buy Ashcroft’s claims of being a political outsider.
When talking about how he would govern, Ashcroft said he’s interested in working with everyone to pass legislation.
“For me, it's not about working with Republicans or Democrats. It's about identifying what is best for the people of this state and building a coalition to get it done. And being a public servant to the citizens of this state,” Ashcroft said.
Tax cuts are a large part of Ashcroft’s policy platform. He has come out against the state’s gas tax, which lawmakers approved increasing in 2021.
“I believe that roads, bridges, inland waterways, support for education and public safety are core responsibilities of government, and therefore we should pay for them out of general revenue,” Ashcroft said.
Another tax policy change Ashcroft is advocating for is the elimination of Missouri’s income tax.
“The budget has increased by $20 billion for the last six or seven years. The state income tax is just over a third of that,” Ashcroft said. “We're not going to do it on Day 1, going from our income tax to having zero income tax. We'll do that probably over six to eight years.”
He said he would hire a team to look into revenue replacements.
An issue that could face the next gubernatorial administration is the fate of the Kansas City Royals and Chiefs.
Jackson County voters in April rejected a sales tax measure that would have helped fund a new baseball stadium for the Royals and improvements to Arrowhead Stadium.
In June, the Kansas Legislature passed an incentive bill intended to lure one or both teams across the state border.
Ashcroft does not believe Missouri should provide monetary assistance to keep both teams in the state.
“It's wrong for me to take your money as the government and just provide it to someone else. And that's what we'd be doing here, I believe,” Ashcroft said.
Another issue that could define Missouri politics this year is a proposed constitutional amendment that would overturn the state’s abortion ban. The issue is likely to appear on the November ballot.
Ashcroft believes that if passed, the amendment would repeal every anti-abortion law Missouri has. He also says he would continue to advocate for anti-abortion policies if elected.
“I am always going to fight for life, not just for the life of the child in the womb, but for the life of the woman that's pregnant and going through a difficult time,” Ashcroft said.
Eigel says he’s the most conservative
Eigel, who has represented a portion of St. Charles County in the Missouri Senate for eight years, has also set himself as an anti-establishment candidate.
“The Missouri I'm thinking about is going to require these big bold ideas about reducing the tax burden, getting our finances in order and really taking on that status quo,” Eigel said.
Manion said Eigel’s consistent conflict with Republican Senate leadership gives merit to his political outsider claims.
“Although he did hold office in Jefferson City while he was there, he certainly did resist the party line a lot to the party's benefit or detriment. You might argue that, but I think that he definitely does have maybe more claim to that outsider brand,” Manion said.
One of Eigel’s key policy proposals is to eliminate personal property taxes for Missourians.
“The discussion about personal property tax is not a discussion about whether or not most rational human beings in this state want to continue to fund the local services like police, fire, schools that we see in every state,” Eigel said. “It is a conversation about whether or not we think that charging somebody rent on their cars every Dec. 1 is the right way to do it.”
Eigel said he intends to use surplus general state revenue to make up for not collecting personal property taxes.
Another policy Eigel has campaigned on is deporting undocumented immigrants.
“I declare an invasion under Article 4 of the Missouri Constitution that would empower the governor to empower the Highway Patrol, every sheriff in this state and the National Guard, if necessary, to activate and detain and deport those that are being suspected of being in this state illegally,” Eigel said.
Eigel does share some policy opinions with his peers. He agrees with Ashcroft that Missouri shouldn’t provide state funding to keep the Royals and Chiefs from moving.
The Weldon Spring Republican has similar opinions related to the proposed abortion amendment. Eigel isn’t sure Missouri voters will approve it.
“I continue to believe that Missouri is a pro-life state. But if it does pass, then it's going to be even more important that we have a governor that doesn't just continue to sit by and do nothing,” Eigel said.
Amending Missouri’s constitution has been a major point of discussion within the legislature the past few sessions. Republicans have tried and failed in recent years to pass a proposed amendment that if approved by voters, would make it harder to amend the constitution.
Eigel, who has strongly advocated for making it harder to amend the constitution, would continue that stance if elected.
“From my perspective, requiring a broader consensus of what is probably Missouri's biggest demographic divide between urban and rural interests, requiring a consensus between those two groups if we're going to change the founding document of the state makes a whole lot of sense to me,” Eigel said.
Kehoe cites work in Parson administration
Kehoe, who has the endorsement of Gov. Mike Parson, pushes back on the notion that he isn’t conservative enough.
“I think it's kind of ridiculous that we've all of a sudden got to a spot in our party, are you a Republican or conservative and then somebody says, ‘On a scale of one to 10,’” Kehoe said. “I believe that you represent the party's values and you move forward. And that's what I have done.”
Kehoe differs from Ashcroft and Eigel with his continued support for the state’s gas tax. He said it’s not anti-Republican to support infrastructure.
“We still are one of the lowest gas taxes in the United States, but yet we've secured some funding to make sure Missouri's roads and bridges are safe for our families, and we have the capacity to do what we need to do for economic development.”
Kehoe has touted the work done in the Parson administration. That includes the raises given the last couple of sessions to state employees.
“We're going to continue to support our state employee team, we're going to continue to work with them to make sure we're treating state employees and our taxpayers as customers and do what we can to provide them the resources they need,” Kehoe said.
He is open to discussions about whether Missouri should provide economic support to keep the Royals and Chiefs.
“It's not about giving subsidies to a sports team, in my opinion, it's about let's look at the economic impact that that organization is making to our community and to our state. And then what do people together want to do to make sure they stay here,” Kehoe said.
On the abortion amendment, Kehoe’s position is similar to his fellow Republican candidates.
“If it should pass, I think it's more critical than ever that you have a pro-life governor in office to make sure that we continue to do everything we can that will be allowed under the law, if it were to pass, to continue to protect innocent life,” Kehoe said.
One policy topic on which all three are on the same page is the issue of who controls the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department.
All of them believe the police department, which has been under local control since 2013 after Missouri voters approved a measure in 2012, should return to state control.
Bills that would make that change have failed in the legislature the past few sessions.
“I'm a proponent for state control because I think that the state should have a say in what that police board makeup looks like,” Kehoe said. “I am a big fan of Chief [Robert] Tracy. He's doing a fantastic job. I want him to stay and work here, and I think this would be a tool even though I know he is outwardly against it, I think this would be a tool that would ultimately help him.”
Kehoe is leading the race in fundraising. According to the July campaign finance report, Kehoe has raised $4.2 million, Eigel $1.7 million and Ashcroft $1.4 million.
Unlike Ashcroft and Eigel, Manion said Kehoe is running his campaign more like an incumbent.
“He has the funding, and he's also, you know, running the ads but declining to debate,” Manion said.
The election is Tuesday.
