Tuesday’s GOP and Democratic primaries could be one of the most important elections in Missouri’s modern history.
Missouri Republicans will choose nominees for five statewide posts — including governor — who will be favored in November since the state leans so red now. Democrats will decide whether to send U.S. Rep. Cori Bush back to Washington and pick their candidates for U.S. Senate and governor.
What makes these races so fascinating is that many of the GOP and Democratic primaries don’t have clear favorites. Public polling, which is notoriously inaccurate in Missouri, shows scores of undecided voters in GOP races for governor and secretary of state. And many candidates have enough money or organizational prowess to potentially win Tuesday.
Will Wesley Bell’s avalanche of money help convince voters?
The 1st Congressional District Democratic primary with Bush and St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell is among one of the most expensive in U.S. history. Much of that distinction comes from pro-Israel groups, like the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project, pouring in millions of dollars to defeat Bush — a vocal critic of Israel’s military invasion of Gaza.
The biggest unanswered question is whether that money, which helped pay for mailers and television ads, moves the largest group of 1st District voters: African Americans. The district contains a plurality of Black voters, who generally don’t rank support or opposition to Israel as a major reason to back a candidate.
That’s probably why groups like the United Democracy Project’s ads don’t mention Israel, but rather Bush’s votes and attendance record. Bush has sought to fight back with ads questioning Bell’s Democratic credentials and his decision not to charge Ferguson Police officer Darren Wilson after he shot and killed Michael Brown.
Which GOP gubernatorial contender broke through to voters?
The race among Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel is hard to gauge because any of the candidates could win.
Kehoe has the most money and institutional support, with endorsements from powerful groups like the Missouri Farm Bureau and the Missouri Chamber of Commerce PAC. But Ashcroft not only possesses a lot of name recognition thanks to his father, former Missouri governor and U.S. Attorney General Jay Ashcroft, he is benefitting from a last-minute ad campaign that attacks Kehoe.
And while he hasn’t raised or spent as much money as Kehoe or Ashcroft, Eigel appears to have significant support among Missouri Republican activists and enough money to place attention-grabbing ads on television.
Kehoe, Ashcroft and Eigel would take state government in different directions with the ways they’d handle tax and budgetary policy and how they’d approach hot-button issues like abortion or LGBTQ rights.
What will the statewide primary results say about Parson’s political legacy?
Gov. Mike Parson reshaped state politics in filling five statewide vacancies.
Three of those appointees — Kehoe, Attorney General Andrew Bailey and state Treasurer Vivek Malek — will be on the ballot Tuesday. If all three win, most of the credit would go toward the campaigns that got them across the finish line.
But Kehoe, Bailey and Malek wins would also dampen the proposition that Parson wasn’t popular with conservative Republicans. A victory for Kehoe could be especially gratifying for Parson, not only because he endorsed him, but because Kehoe may continue with the incumbent governor’s tradition of being more collaborative and less dogmatic than Eigel or Ashcroft.
If Parson’s endorsees lose, it could show that Missouri Republicans are moving even further to the right.
Can money beat institutional support in the Democratic contest for governor?
When House Minority Leader Crystal Quade launched her gubernatorial bid last year, she seemed well on her way to a showdown with one of the three GOP contenders to succeed Parson.
But a fellow Springfield resident, Mike Hamra, threw a big hurdle on Quade’s path. The CEO of Hamra Enterprises is spending several million dollars of his own money, primarily on television ads playing up his business credentials. While Quade’s campaign and aligned PACs do have money to do television and radio ads, they’re coming somewhat late in the election season.
If Hamra pulls it out, it may bring up comparisons to 2022 when Trudy Busch Valentine self-funded her way to winning a U.S. Senate Democratic primary over Lucas Kunce. But unlike Valentine, Hamra hasn’t been able to win key primary endorsements from prominent elected officials or organized labor. Quade, on the other hand, is backed by the Missouri AFL-CIO and a slew of trade and service unions as well as scores of Democratic elected officials.
Can Kunce bounce back from his disappointing 2022?
Kunce, an Independence attorney and Marine veteran, is experiencing a much different 2024 election than 2022.
He has a commanding fundraising lead over state Sen. Karla May and even outraised incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley throughout recent fundraising quarters. He also received near-unanimous support from organized labor groups, as well as key elected officials from both sides of the state.
Still, because the Democratic U.S. Senate race flew so under the radar compared to other contests on the statewide ballot, Kunce is clearly not taking any chances. His campaign is airing television ads playing up his background, potentially to avoid a repeat of what happened in 2018 when May defeated state Sen. Jake Hummel despite being outspent.
Regardless of who wins, Hawley’s reelection campaign could be the biggest individual race in November, especially if either Kunce or May can persuade national Democratic groups to devote resources to the state.
Does Trump’s endorsement make a difference?
GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump is backing all the Republican candidates for governor and attorney general — allowing them to claim in ads that they were endorsed by the former president.
That’s not the case in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District race, where former state Sen. Bob Onder received the backing of Trump and got the added bonus of Trump calling his main opponent, former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, “weak on MAGA.”
But Schaefer isn’t going down without a fight, as a slew of political action committees have lobbed scores of attack ads against Onder. And Schaefer does have a valuable endorsement from the district incumbent, U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, who is retiring. Luetkemeyer and Onder ran against each other in a memorable 2008 GOP congressional primary.
If Schaefer is able to win, it may show that Trump’s endorsement is not a golden ticket to Congress and, perhaps, that the 3rd District’s center of gravity is in mid-Missouri as opposed to the St. Louis suburbs.
What percentage will the winner of the GOP primary for secretary of state get?
The wildest race on the ballot may be the GOP primary to succeed Ashcroft as secretary of state. It features eight candidates.
The candidates are: St. Louis resident Valentina Gomez, state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, political strategist Jamie Corley, House Speaker Dean Plocher, Wentzville Municipal Judge Mike Carter, Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller, state Rep. Adam Schwadron and state Sen. Denny Hoskins.
The winner of the contest may prevail with a relatively small share of the vote. It could be similar to the wide-open Democratic primary in 2004 for Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District seat, when eventual winner Russ Carnahan won with 22.9% of the vote.
