As a rapid growth of Latinos domestically has reshaped America’s demographics, politicians are focused on wooing the increasingly key group.
Latinos are now the largest ethnic group in California and New Mexico, according to the Pew Research Center, and in Pennsylvania, they could be key to deciding who could win the hotly contested presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
While Missouri’s Latino community is still relatively small, it’s growing — and fast. That has political strategists eyeing Latino voters in Missouri as an increasingly influential force in future elections.
But, reaching and convincing Latino voters is not a simple proposition. Despite being often grouped together, Latinos are a diverse population with disparate values who vote accordingly. Community members hope to finally see the Latino population actively shape the state’s political landscape.
“I would say that if you're not at the table, you're on the menu,” said Alderwoman Daniela Velázquez, the first Latina elected to office in St. Louis. “And if you know anything about Latino cooking, you want our sazón. You want our flavor at the table.”
A shifting population
The St. Louis region saw the largest growth of its Latino population last year. The region was home to roughly 22,000 Latinos in 1980, and the population subsequently grew to more than 100,000 in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The agency also found Missouri’s Latino population grew from almost 62,000 in 1990 to more than 300,000 in 2020. Last year, the state added 33,000 Latinos, according to Ness Sandoval, a demographer and sociology professor at St. Louis University. The group now makes up roughly 5.2% of the state’s total population. But, there are concerns minority groups were undercounted in the last census.
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This growth is part of a larger national trend. The Census Bureau estimates that since 2010, the Latino population has grown by almost 30% — from 50.5 million in 2010 to 65.2 million in 2020. The Latino population’s eligible voter base has grown by 40% since 2016, according to Pew Research.
“I think it's exciting because there are lots more people to potentially recruit to run for office one day,” said Velázquez, St. Louis’ 6th Ward Democratic alderwoman. “But I also think it means that [...] elected officials, and government as a whole, need to be more aware of the demographic changes within the community.”
For all of the region’s growth, Sandoval said the St. Louis region is falling behind in attracting and retaining Latino families compared to similar-size cities. The region’s small Latino population, he said, is a historic outlier.
Census data shows Missouri is lagging behind other Midwestern states. Roughly 5% of the state’s population identifies as Hispanic or Latino compared to Illinois’ 18%, Kansas’ 13%, Arkansas’ 8.5% and Iowa’s 7%.
"Even though you would see these [growing] numbers, this is still not where the region needs to be if it wants to be a major player in 2040-2050,” the demographer said. "There [are] some people in the community that also realize ... we have to put money behind our rhetoric and start being intentional."
Not one bloc
Though Republicans and Democrats have historically treated the Latino vote as one monolithic bloc, the reality is more complex. Mexicans make up the largest subset of the Latino population in the U.S., and those with roots in other countries and territories emphasize the need for more nuance in campaign messaging.
Velázquez, whose family is from Puerto Rico, said immigration may be important to one segment of the Latino population, but it’s not universal. Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens and have other concerns, such as colonization and the Jones Act — a law requiring goods shipped between U.S. ports be carried on American-built and operated ships, which led to higher shipping costs and limited economic growth for the territory.
“It's important for people to not lump us all as the same,” Velázquez said. “I think that that particularly shows up in politics because the cultural nuances that we know as a community just aren't always recognized.”
That’s also led to problematic discourse about Missouri’s Latino residents and voters.
A state House committee holding hearings across the state about immigration and crime drew criticism for being misguided on U.S. immigration policy. One of the women who testified was later charged with federal felony forgery after she made up a conspiracy that Mexican-born restaurant owners were bribing local public officials to cover up their immigration status and obtain liquor licenses.
In addition, ahead of the August primary, former Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Eigel came under fire for what many considered to be a racist television ad featuring a Spanish translator and western-themed music. But, immigration and the border aren’t necessarily top of mind for Latino voters.
A recent UnidosUS poll of 3,000 eligible Latino voters from several swing states found they were more concerned with “pocketbook issues,” including rising inflation, scarcity of well-paying jobs and rising housing costs. Immigration and crime were tied for fifth.
Israel Baeza, a county commissioner in Sedalia who believes to be Missouri's first Latino to serve in such a role, agrees with the poll’s findings. “They want to work. They want to make a living,” he said. “They want to provide for their family. They want to have some job security.”
Party challenges
Engaging with Latino voters and getting them to the polls is an added challenge.
Baeza said both the Republican and Democratic parties could do a better job of recognizing the growing influence of the Latino community in their bases and reaching out.
“We could maybe be a little bit more welcoming [in] a lot of the rhetoric that's going on,” said the Republican. “The Democrats, I think they're folks focusing on a lot of identity politics, which is not necessarily at the top of the list for a lot of Hispanics.”
Additionally, political strategists have noted voters are increasingly leaning away from traditional party affiliations.
"Now people don't necessarily identify with a party," said Rosetta Okohson, chief executive officer of the Maplewood-based MO Political Consulting. "People are more concerned about the issues, what's at hand, how it's affecting their everyday life."
Okohson, who's worked in Missouri politics for nearly three decades, emphasizes the importance of intentional engagement with Latino communities to build trust beyond election cycles. This includes translating campaign materials, hiring bilingual canvassers, attending cultural events and investing in Spanish-language media buys.
"We shouldn't be leaving anyone on the table from a larger perspective," she said. "In this space — elected officials, people that want to run for office, politicians — need to make a conscious effort to be a part of the community before it is time to ask for someone to vote.”
Growing engagement
As strategists seek to win over Latino voters, elected leaders and nonpartisan groups are working to inspire greater civic engagement within the community.
UnidosUS reported nearly 130,000 voting-age Latino voters resided in Missouri in 2022. But, only 37% of them voted in that year’s midterm election.
The lack of engagement caught the attention of Ben Molina, president of the St. Louis-based Hispanic Leaders Group and partners at WEPOWER, a nonprofit dedicated to building political and economic power in communities of color.
“We know the No. 1 barrier for the Latino community is [a] lack of awareness about how government works — how they can be a voice, how they can contribute to the policies and shape the policies that are that are affecting their lives,” Molina said. “We believe that the primary method that we're going to be able to impact change is through education.”
The Hispanic Leaders Group and WEPOWER prioritize grassroots engagement largely through on-the-ground voter registration drives, educational workshops and addressing language barriers.
One misconception is Missouri voters can’t have a translator help them at the polls, Molina said. But, state law allows family members to help their family at the polls. Assistance can vary from translating for someone who doesn’t speak English or reading a ballot for someone who is visually impaired. Non-family members can only help one person per election cycle.
Missouri Protection and Advocacy Services and VozKC recently filed suit against the state because of the policy. The groups, along with three plaintiffs, allege the one-person limit violates the federal Voting Rights Act by disenfranchising voters with limited English proficiency or disabilities.
Molina said efforts to fight for voter rights — particularly in ways that impact Latino voters — are crucial for the future of the community in Missouri.
“The Latino community has a huge opportunity to really lift up their voice and be an active part of the decision-making that's going to be happening,” Molina said. “If we are not engaged […] we're letting other people decide how our lives are going to be impacted and what decisions are going to be made on our behalf.”
