As incumbent Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce near the end of a highly contentious race for a Missouri U.S. Senate seat, the two are pitching strikingly different messages.
For Hawley, the Nov. 5 election is about retaining someone in the Senate willing to fight Democratic priorities and challenging GOP orthodoxies on policy. He’s also arguing that Kunce is trying to pass himself off as a moderate alternative when his past statements show a much more liberal philosophy.
“The liberals, the Democrats, Kunce and Kamala, they have brought this country to the brink of disaster, have they not?” Hawley said at a recent speech in O’Fallon, Missouri. “Did you ever think in four years they would do to our beautiful country what they have done? We're the greatest country in the history of the world, but if you look at us now, my gosh, they've tried to bring this country to shambles.”
Kunce says that Hawley’s populist messaging is a phony effort meant to cover a relative lack of accomplishment as a senator. And he’s banking that voters will embrace his mixture of populist criticism of corporate power and strong support for abortion rights.
“He wants to tell us how to live and take away all our money and send it to the shareholder class. I'm the exact opposite,” Kunce said. “I think Missourians are smart enough to make their own decisions.”
The race will answer key questions about Hawley and Missouri politics. A Hawley win could show that the state is firmly locked into backing GOP candidates — and that his decision to object to Joe Biden’s 2020 win in Pennsylvania didn’t sink his electoral prospects.
A Kunce victory could provide a road map for Missouri Democrats to win statewide offices and show that backlash over restrictive abortion laws could affect other contests.
A high-profile senator
At Frankie Martin’s Garden in Cottleville, dozens of people recently gathered to hear Hawley and Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker speak.
Hawley’s speech mixed criticism of Kunce on environmental policy and LGBTQ rights with the argument that he’s needed in the Senate as a bulwark against Democratic political figures and ideas.
“For four years, they have shoved this nutty agenda down our throats,” Hawley said. “We didn't vote for it. We didn't want it. It's been terrible for us in our state.”
After growing up in Lexington near Kansas City, Hawley received his undergraduate degree from Stanford University and his law degree from Yale. He was a law professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia before being elected attorney general in 2016, becoming the first Republican to serve in that post in 24 years.
Just two years after getting elected attorney general, Hawley unseated Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in 2018. Since taking office, Hawley often attracted notice for taking policy positions that departed from those of many of his Republican colleagues.
For instance, Hawley expressed more support for union rights, including reversing his previous support for "right-to-work" laws. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he teamed up with Washington Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal to overhaul the nation’s unemployment system. And he’s publicly departed from GOP leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on providing military support for Ukraine.
More recently, Hawley unleashed fierce criticism of House Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, for failing to pass legislation that would add the St. Louis area to a radioactive waste compensation program. His advocacy for what’s known as RECA won support from Missouri Democrats who typically oppose him.
“My message to my fellow Republicans is, ‘Guys, this is the right thing to do, and you've got to deliver,’” Hawley said.
But much of Hawley’s political philosophy also centered around his fierce criticism of President Joe Biden’s administration. He was opposed to a bipartisan immigration bill that ended up dying in the Senate, contending it didn't go far enough to curb immigration. He’s on board with Trump’s plan to expand the use of tariffs, especially when it comes to China.
“They ought to be paying their fair share,” Hawley said. “Why would we be subsidizing Chinese corporations that are taking our jobs and paying their laborers slave wages?”
Hawley has also stressed his opposition to abortion and LGBTQ rights. Unlike Kunce, Hawley is opposed to the Amendment 3 ballot measure that would legalize abortion in Missouri.
And during his speech in O’Fallon, Hawley suggested that LGBTQ pride flags shouldn’t fly at federal buildings — and instead should be replaced with ones that say, “In God We Trust.” He also supports banning puberty blockers, hormone therapy and gender transition surgery for minors.
“There aren't 200 genders,” Hawley said. “There are two: male and female, and the way that God made you is good.”
Kunce takes on corporate power
On a recent afternoon in St. Louis, Kunce is chatting with workers at GreaterHealth Pharmacy and Wellness. He’s on a mini-tour of independent pharmacies to underscore how he thinks pharmacy benefit managers, such as Express Scripts, are making it difficult for businesses like GreaterHealth to operate.
“They have huge market share and we need to use the power of our antitrust laws to take that down,” Kunce said.
Kunce’s fervent criticism of corporate power has been a major part of his political identity since he started seeking federal office several years ago. He often talks about his economically difficult upbringing in Jefferson City, which included financial hardship after his sister encountered health problems at an early age.
“Folks in the working-class neighborhood, our friends down at church passed the plate for us, folks brought more food by the house than we could ever eat,” Kunce said during an interview in July. “While my parents were in St. Louis for weeks on end, everybody took us into their homes and took care of us. And for me, you know, that's the strength that we have in this state.”
The Jefferson City native graduated from Yale and from the University of Missouri School of Law. He served for 13 years in the Marine Corps, which included tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kunce often cites his military experience and his time as an arms control negotiator to guide some of his foreign policy views. Unlike Hawley, Kunce supports aid to Ukraine as a way to keep Russia in check and prevent it from invading NATO-aligned countries. During a rally in Bridgeton last year, Kunce criticized American political leaders for saying there’s not enough federal money to help Missouri communities — even though they approved “$6.4 trillion to nation build in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
“And they can’t find any money to nation build here? I don’t believe it,” Kunce said. “I was there. We built nothing.”
This is Kunce’s second U.S. Senate bid. He lost in the 2022 Democratic primary to Trudy Busch Valentine. Like Hawley, he said he’s supportive of tariffs against China — though he stopped short on endorsing Trump’s idea to implement across the board tariffs for all imports. He’s also backed removing taxes on tips and the government subsidizing in vitro fertilization, both of which Trump expressed support for on the campaign trail.
Kunce is in favor of Amendment 3 and has cast Hawley as much more extreme on the issue than the average Missouri voter. Hawley says he’s opposed to abortion with the exception of cases involving rape, incest or life of the mother.
“Missourians are in a position right now where they are tired of control freak politicians telling them what to do and taking away their rights,” Kunce said. “And there's no better example on that than this abortion petition and Josh Hawley being on the ballot.”
A contentious race
The U.S. Senate contest flew somewhat below the radar during Missouri’s extremely busy primary season, mainly because Hawley didn’t have GOP competition and Kunce won his race against state Sen. Karla May without much trouble.
But that changed quickly in mid-August when Hawley confronted Kunce at the Missouri State Fair over debates,
Hawley said he thinks his race against Kunce is much more competitive than people realize, primarily since his Democratic rival consistently raised more money.
“There's no way that I'm going to sit back and say, ‘Oh, I'll just allow this race to be bought,’” Hawley said.
During a Missouri Press Association debate earlier this year, Hawley honed in on Kunce’s decision not to endorse Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Kunce has said he is focused on his own race and is not trying to tell Missourians how to vote for president.
Asked whether that move could be seen as offensive to Democratic voters who are excited about Harris’ candidacy, Kunce said: “I didn't get into this race to decide who the president was going to be. I got into this race to invest in Missouri.”
Jan. 6 as a flashpoint
Days before a mob descended on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Hawley became the first senator to object to Biden’s win in Pennsylvania. He continued on with his objection after the insurrection, arguing that the Senate shouldn’t accept Pennsylvania’s electoral votes because of the way the state expanded absentee voting during the pandemic.
Kunce said the image of Hawley pumping his fist outside the Capitol to Trump supporters juxtaposed with video footage of him running inside the Capitol shows that his GOP rival’s image doesn’t match up with reality.
“The second he thinks it’s going to give him power, he’s out there raising his fist all ‘rah, rah, rah,’” Kunce said last year. “And as soon as things get real, he’s skittering out the back door and running for the exit.”
Hawley has continually said he doesn’t regret objecting to Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.
“I would hope that what happened in Pennsylvania in 2020 would never, ever happen again in American history,” Hawley said earlier this month.
The election is one week from today.
