Tuesday should have been a resounding win for Missouri Republicans.
The party easily won every statewide election up for grabs and maintained majorities in the Missouri General Assembly. But the passage of Amendment 3, which enshrines abortion rights in the state constitution, was one of the biggest policy failures for the GOP since the party took over the legislature in 2002.
Here are seven questions answered by the election:
Will Amendment 3 show that a GOP-leaning state can embrace abortion rights?
Yes.
Of the 10 states that had abortion-related ballot measures before voters on Tuesday, Missouri was the only GOP-leaning state that chose to repeal a near-total ban on the procedure.
Amendment 3 didn’t pass with just Democratic voters. Since Missouri ended up voting for President-elect Donald Trump by more than 18 percentage points, Republicans made the difference in pushing Amendment 3 past the finish line.
With abortion rights providers now suing to undo the state’s abortion restrictions, Missouri lawmakers will almost certainly try to put something else on the ballot in 2026 to undo or water down Amendment 3.
Not only will abortion rights opponents have to raise millions of dollars to pass an Amendment 3 repeal, they’d likely be asking voters for a redo during the midpoint of Trump’s term. And the president’s party often struggles in those elections — meaning abortion rights proponents would be in a relatively strong position to defend their win on Tuesday.
No one should diminish how significant Tuesday was for Missouri’s abortion rights supporters — even though the battle to restore access to the procedure isn’t over.
Can Kamala Harris turn back the clock on Democratic presidential performance?
Yes, but not in the way the vice president wanted.
Trump beat Harris in Missouri by 18.4 percentage points — which was pretty similar to the GOP nominee’s 18.51-point win in 2016.
Harris’ backsliding in Missouri corresponded with her woeful performance in noncompetitive states. Her win in Illinois will be much less impressive than when Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by about 17 percentage points.
And while Harris was never going to win Missouri or lose Illinois, the fact that she did significantly worse than Biden in both states was indicative of her poor showings in more competitive states.
Will Amendment 3’s coattails help Missouri Democrats?
No.
Missouri Republicans crushed their Democratic counterparts in statewide races and competitive state legislative contests. In some respects, this result tracks with polling showing significant support among Republicans to dismantle the state’s abortion ban.
There’s been a lot of befuddlement about how Missourians could do things like legalize recreational marijuana and protect abortion rights while electing GOP officials who oppose those types of policies.
Tuesday’s results may show that Missouri Republicans are not as ideologically homogeneous as people assume. And it may also provide evidence that if Missouri Democrats want to gain ground in statewide and legislative elections, they shouldn’t depend on well-funded ballot initiatives.
Can Kunce knock off Hawley without help from national Democrats?
No.
National political groups that often provide significant amounts of money and organizational help skipped over Missouri’s U.S. Senate race for states like Florida and Texas.
And while there are instances of federal candidates winning without help from those well-funded organizations, it’s pretty rare, and Democrat Lucas Kunce’s loss to U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley continued that precedent.
That’s not to say Kunce ran a bad campaign: He raised more money than Hawley and spent several years building momentum for Tuesday’s contest. But his defeat also shows that Missouri Democrats have a long way to go in order to challenge GOP statewide dominance.
Did Hawley’s aggressive posture pay off?
It certainly didn’t hurt him.
While Trump’s solid performance in Missouri likely helped build Hawley’s margin of victory, the state’s senior senator more than doubled his winning percentage from his 2018 win over incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Since that 2018 contest was a targeted race by both Republican and Democratic groups, it’s not surprising that Hawley did better in 2024. But it perhaps also showed that Hawley’s penchant for taking controversial stands didn’t hurt his standing with Missouri voters — and certainly not Missouri Republicans.
Can any statewide Democrat piece together a geographic coalition?
No.
Once again, Missouri’s statewide Democrats failed to make meaningful gains in fast-growing suburbs or the state’s rural areas. They didn’t even do that well in counties where they’ve made gains, as Kunce was the only Democratic candidate who won Platte County in the western part of the state.
There’s really nothing any of the Democratic candidates could have done to piece together the elusive rural-suburban-urban coalition in a year the GOP presidential nominee won Missouri by a landslide.
Will legislators have to go back to the drawing board on sports betting?
It looks like lawmakers will be spared from having to deal with that thorny issue in 2025.
That’s because Amendment 2 passed by 4,366 votes — one of the closest outcomes for a ballot issue in recent memory. While that puts the measure in range for a recount, the raw vote total is likely too much to overcome based on recent precedent.
Still, the near failure of Amendment 2 does show that if a ballot measure has well-funded opposition, there’s a much greater chance it will fail.
