Democrats in St. Clair County previously enjoyed double-digit victories over their Republican opponents, but those margins of victory over the last three elections have crept into the single digits.
“Things have changed a lot,” said Michael Butler, chairman of the St. Clair County Republican Party. “I think we’re just kind of a little bit behind the trend compared to our neighbors, but I think eventually we’ll be in a similar boat.”
The closeness of some races, in addition to the GOP picking up state legislative seats in the last few elections in more rural parts of the county, have Republicans in the Metro East hopeful they are gaining ground and could flip the county red in future cycles. Madison County, located just to the north, began flipping for Republicans in the 2010 election — and the GOP’s support has only gotten stronger there.
However, St. Clair Democrats aren’t ready to give up on what’s been a stronghold of their party in downstate Illinois. In fact, no Republicans currently occupy a countywide office, and Democrats hold a 19-9 advantage on the county board.
“I think that the reason the Democrats in St Clair County continue to win is because they’ve done a good job,” said longtime state Rep. Jay Hoffman, D-Swansea. “They’ve done it in a fiscally conservative manner, while, at the same time, taking care of the needs of the people of St. Clair County.”
Whether Republicans can decrease the average 7 percentage point margin their party lost by in last month’s election or even flip St. Clair County in 2026 or 2028 will center around which side can win over the area’s working-class vote, elected officials and political observers believe.
GOP retains competitive legislative seat
Maybe the biggest election victory for the Republican Party of St. Clair County has been in Illinois’ 114th House District, which encompasses much of the southern part of the county, horseshoeing from East St. Louis to Scott Air Force Base and the rural areas in between.
“What's happening is the wealthy suburbs, the wealthy areas, are trending Democrat,” said Rep. Kevin Schmidt, R-Millstadt, who’s now won the 114th in back-to-back elections. “The working-class areas are trending Republican, and that's going to continue.”
In both races, Schmidt beat former state Rep. LaToya Greenwood, D-East St. Louis. In November, the seat had been one of Illinois Democrats’ top targets. Greenwood significantly outraised Schmidt in the race, which she lost 52% to 47%.
Schmidt said this race was less about GOP vs. Democratic issues than his record vs. Greenwood’s. The Republican said his support of legislation to lower taxes and lower the cost of living helped him win.
While Democrats in the Illinois General Assembly drew the most conservative parts of St. Clair County into the 114th Legislative District in 2021, some of the most recent results could be driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s appeal to working-class voters.
Politics at the local and county level have been nationalized, political observers said. Few local races are decided by local issues anymore, they said.
Bill Enyart, a former Democratic congressman from Belleville, agrees that’s the case. Trump has been able to peel away support of rank-and-file union workers, too, and the president-elect has been an effective messenger, he said.
“Unfortunately, the national Democratic Party has not found a way to combat that, or counteract that, and that bleeds down into local races,” Enyart said.
Nationally speaking, the consensus among St. Clair County Democrats is that their party has gotten away from working-class issues — or at the very least — messaging those issues well.
“Anytime that the Democratic Party doesn't represent working families to the fullest, I'm concerned,” said Tom Holbrook, the St. Clair County clerk and former state representative.
Across the country, the Democratic Party was perceived as moving to the left on a number of issues, like Medicare, gender, border security and policing.
Enyart and Hoffman contend that Democrats are still the party of the working class locally. That shows in their support for raising the minimum wage and creating good-paying jobs, for instance.
“We, as Democrats, have to keep ensuring that people remember and know that, at the end of the day, we have been and are the party of working families, and we’ll continue to be,” Hoffman said.
In last month’s election, Trump made gains with a number of demographic groups. In St. Clair County, Butler said the Republican Party is enjoying some of those effects — particularly with working-class voters.
“They're Trump supporters; they're not necessarily Republicans,” Butler said. “But I think that there's an opportunity to help them make that transition, and that's something that we've got to do if we want to continue to have success in the future.”
Data and demographics
Without the vote from East St. Louis, still a Democratic bastion, Republicans in St. Clair County could be far more competitive. But that reliable vote for Democrats is dwindling.
“Our Democratic vote has dissolved in East St Louis as the population has declined,” Holbrook said.
Peaking at more than 82,000 people during the 1950 census, East St. Louis has lost population every census since. By 2020, the population stood south of 19,000, according to the data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
East St. Louis and neighboring Cahokia Heights should be a focus for the Republican Party, Schmidt said. That’s because they’re working-class areas, too.
“Even though East St Louis is still heavily Democratic, it's trending more and more each election cycle, along with any other working-class area, Republican,” Schmidt said.
The population growth in St. Clair County is largely centered around communities surrounding Scott Air Force Base, like O’Fallon, Shiloh and Mascoutah.
Veterans tend to lean conservative, according to the Pew Research Center. However, Democrats have made up ground in suburban areas in recent elections. In November, 52% of suburban voters supported Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, according to the Associated Press.
While the growth of communities in eastern St. Clair County may have helped, it’s not been enough to put Republicans over the top.
Why did Madison County flip red — and will St. Clair?
The GOP now holds a 20-6 advantage on the Madison County Board.
In 1990, it was a different story. It had been 10 years since a Republican won a countywide office, but John Shimkus, who’d later go on to serve 13 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, beat the trend.
“Democrats elected me to be county treasurer,” Shimkus said, noting that only two of the 29 county board seats were held by Republicans at the time.
In that era, Democrats enjoyed almost complete rule. Republicans making inroads in Madison County since could stem from voter apathy for that Democratic control, Shimkus said.
As he later transitioned to Congress in the mid-1990s and beyond, Shimkus said it was Madison County’s strong organized labor that was able to help him in the historically blue part of Illinois. The Republican noticed that those union voters didn’t align with Democrats on every issue.
“They're pretty conservative. They're less government, lower taxes, have more personal freedoms and liberties,” Shimkus said. “They go to church. They hunt.”
As Rust Belt jobs have dwindled across the country, that change among the blue-collar voters, helps explain the change in the political trajectory, Shimkus said.
Holbrook, who also represented parts of Madison County in his nine terms in the Illinois House, believes Democrats can make up ground in Madison by returning to that party’s base: blue-collar workers.
“I think when we focus on those quality-of-life issues is when the Democrats will take back that county,” Holbrook said.
The question that remains is whether St. Clair County's working-class voters could follow Madison’s.
If the Republicans can break through one countywide seat, Butler said, the rest will become that much easier. The successful playbook for the GOP will include simple things: parades, community events and knocking on doors because, in all likelihood, Republicans will continue to get outspent locally, Butler said.
“You kind of have to do it the old-fashioned way,” he said.
The midterm elections tend to be tough for the incumbent president’s party, which means 2026 may not be the year for St. Clair County Republicans.
“I don't see that happening in St Clair County,” Enyart said of the county flipping red. “But it certainly could be possible that we're going to have some more close elections.”
