Missouri Republicans experienced something this weekend that has been missing from prior Lincoln Days events: calm.
After years of bruising primary battles and infighting within the Missouri General Assembly, Republican activists and elected officials used the party’s largest gathering of the year to bask in their electoral good fortune. Republicans hold every statewide office and commanding majorities in the General Assembly.
And some of Gov. Mike Kehoe’s big agenda items are moving quickly through a legislature whose members are getting along better than in recent years. The measures include crime legislation that would bring back a gubernatorial board overseeing the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department.
“If you want us to be able to keep getting this agenda done, if you want us to do all the things we've talked about tonight, we absolutely have to hold it,” Kehoe said Saturday at the event in Maryland Heights. “The only way we can hold it is if this party and all of the counties that you represent stick together.”
There’s only one statewide race on the ballot next year: state auditor. Democrats would need to field a candidate who can raise millions of dollars and turn around years of decline in rural and suburban counties to have a chance to unseat incumbent Scott Fitzpatrick.
Instead, Missouri Republican Party Chairman Peter Kinder said the party’s focus will be defending several open state Senate seats — including two in the Kansas City metropolitan area and one that encompasses Springfield.
“I think the left-wingers have targeted Missouri in a multistage, multiyear effort to turn us in their direction — to defeat Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and to take us back to a left-wing, Democrat-dominated state,” Kinder said. “And we are just not going to let that happen.”
Trump fatigue?
One of the big reasons Missouri Republicans may have to guard against complacency is historical precedent. Typically, the president’s political party does worse in midterm elections.
“We’ve got to make sure that people are not falling asleep and that they are staying involved,” said St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder. “They're staying engaged on the issues, understand the candidates, the few that will be running, and get behind these people.”
While it’s still early in Trump’s second term, his initial actions — particularly cutting federal workers and implementing tariffs — are facing backlash. U.S. Rep. Mark Alford, R-Cass County, recently faced an angry town hall meeting.
And U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, R-St. Charles County, said that there will be missteps along the way, especially when Trump and billionaire Elon Musk are trying to drastically reshape the size and scope of government.
“I think Musk and DOGE would be the first to admit that in some cases, something might get caught or someone might get laid off that, in retrospect, was a mistake,” said Onder, referring to the Department of Government Efficiency that Musk has championed since Trump took office. “But I think what would be worse is if we didn't make the attempt to cut out waste and fraud and abuse.”
Others at Lincoln Days pointed out some of the potentially attractive happenings since Trump returned to the White House.
U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Missouri, cited how illegal border crossings plummeted since Trump took office.
“As I said a year ago, you just needed a new president,” Schmitt said.
Eye on Amendment 3 redo
While Missouri Republicans had a solid 2024 election cycle from a candidate perspective, they did experience one major electoral failure: the passage of a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.
That measure, known as Amendment 3, paved the way for a Jackson County judge to strike down scores of abortion restrictions — including the near-total ban on the procedure, licensing requirements and a 72-hour waiting period. Abortions resumed in Kansas City and Columbia, though Planned Parenthood’s St. Louis clinic in the Central West End is awaiting approval of a complication plan before offering medication abortions.
Missouri Republicans have promised to put a measure on the ballot, likely in 2026, that would repeal and replace Amendment 3. A Senate committee recently approved a constitutional amendment that would prohibit abortions except in cases of rape, incest and a mother’s life being in danger.
Fitzpatrick said while Missouri Republicans are united in their desire to undo Amendment 3, they’re still working through the details of their replacement plan.
“At the end of the day, the voters are going to decide this issue. It's in the Constitution,” Fitzpatrick said. “I'm sure the Democrats are going to say: ‘Well, you know, the people have spoken. You have to let the will of the people stand.’ The people can vote on this every two years, forever, if we want them to. And it's still going to be the will of the people.”
“I think that is probably going to be the other big thing that's going to be that everybody in the state is going to be looking at and voting on,” he added.
Can the GOP finally break through in St. Louis County?
This year’s Lincoln Days took place in St. Louis County, one of the few areas of the state where Republicans have lost ground during the Trump era.
Thanks to Trump’s perennially weak position among some suburban voters, parts of St. Louis County that were previously fairly Republican-leaning — such as Kirkwood and western areas — became reliably blue. And after nearly capturing the county executive’s office in 2014, St. Louis County Republicans have fallen short in elections for that job.
Republicans are hoping for a different outcome next year, when St. Louis County Executive Sam Page will be up for another term.
Councilman Dennis Hancock, R-Fenton, told St. Louis Public Radio on Saturday that he plans to forgo another term on the county council and run for county executive instead.
“We have serious problems in St. Louis County, where we're not attracting new businesses, we're losing population, and we’ve seen our crime rates not getting better,” Hancock said. “And so, we just need to have a different voice and a different perspective in the county executive’s office. And I think it's time for people to take a fresh look at what a conservative Republican might have to offer.”
Hancock was the mayor of Fenton for 12 years. He won a county council seat that includes municipalities such as Kirkwood, Town and Country and Des Peres in 2022. He pointed out that even when Democrats won up and down the ballot in St. Louis County that year, Page had a relatively weak showing against Republican Mark Mantovani.
Still, Hancock will likely face some criticism of his own during the campaign. He dealt with a nepotism dispute over an attempt to hire his stepdaughter as his assistant. He admitted he made a mistake but noted that St. Louis County Prosecutor Melissa Price Smith dropped the legal proceedings against him.
Councilwoman Shalonda Webb and state Sen. Brian Williams are both mulling primary challenges to Page. Some GOP attendees at Lincoln Days said Page may survive a primary if multiple candidates run against him.
Still, Hancock said he will be an attractive alternative if Page isn’t his opponent next year.
“What I have that they don't have is 12 years as a chief executive of a city,” he said.
