Shortly after attendees of Missouri Republican Party Lincoln Days partook in a rousing rendition of the Village People’s “YMCA” on Friday evening, U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt came to the stage to deliver unequivocal support for President Donald Trump.
“Those who believe they can stay neutral in this are naïve. We all must choose a side,” Schmitt said. “Over the past decade, a great darkness has arisen in our country, a darkness that seeks to snuff out the flame that our forefathers lit centuries ago.”
So far, Missouri Republican leaders remain squarely on Trump's side even as the GOP chief executive's second administration produces near-hourly controversy over spending cuts and drastic shifts in foreign policy.
On Saturday morning, U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley opened his annual Lincoln Days breakfast expressing relief that Trump was back in office.
“We have a window of opportunity now to save the soul of this country,” Hawley said. “The American people, they don't want what they had shoved down their throat the last four years. The American people want to protect our children. They want our streets to be safe. They want our border to be closed. They want our towns to thrive again.”
Republican elected officials nationally have generally muted their criticisms of Trump’s initial actions. And Hawley is strongly supportive of some of his key moves including cutting off logistical support for Ukraine’s efforts to repel Russia’s invasion.
But Hawley stressed to reporters on Saturday that he doesn’t support drastic cuts to the federal workforce that will put some of his priorities in jeopardy. That includes cleaning up radioactive waste in St. Louis and St. Charles counties, as well as setting up conservation offices throughout the state.
“We've got to make sure, at the end of the day, we are delivering on what our taxpayers have paid for,” Hawley said. “I want to make sure our veterans are getting the best care we can possibly give them. And listen, I've talked to the president about this. I think the president shares all of those goals too. So efficiency and service of a government that actually works for the people I'm all for.”
Schmitt said everything that the Trump administration is doing “has to do with programming and personnel, which squarely fits in the executive branch.” But he did add that Congress will eventually have to be more active in terms of how it appropriates money during Trump’s presidency.
He also said he's hopeful that major federal employers, like the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency in St. Louis, won’t face stark cuts to their workforce.
“NGA, obviously, is a very important thing to me,” Schmitt said. “I think it's part of this defense tech capital moving forward.”
Watching for backlash
Lawmakers like U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, R-St. Charles County, said Trump is more disciplined, focused and prepared to enact his agenda in his second nonconsecutive term than when he first came to the White House in 2017.
“Second term, he came ready to go. He had his team in place. He knew what he wanted to do,” Onder said.
While there’s little question that Trump’s popularity among Missourians helped the state’s Republican Party become dominant, they’re also closely watching whether some of his initial actions, such as reductions to the federal budget and popular programs, spark a broader backlash that dampens enthusiasm among the party’s activists and elected officials.
“We just need to continue to work together to make sure that our priorities are Missourians' priorities, and they match their values,” Gov. Mike Kehoe said.
Trump won the state’s electoral votes three straight times by double-digit margins. He’s especially popular in rural parts of the state, including regions like southeast and northeast Missouri that were historically Democratic-leaning.
Attendees at Lincoln Days praised Trump for a number of his executive orders and administrative actions, particularly in terms of immigration policy and his plans to cut taxes. And for the most part, they’re supportive of both Trump and billionaire Elon Musk’s efforts to rein in spending.
“I think the reason Missourians resonate so well with President Trump is he represents the working men and women across this country,” Gov. Mike Kehoe said. “And in the state of Missouri, those same working men and women have to make tough decisions in their family budget. They have to cut out the fat they sometimes can't do with things in the era of the Biden inflation. So I think President Trump is doing what Missourians want him to do. He wants a right-size government, all while keeping essential services available to those who need him.”
But that doesn’t mean that Trump’s initial acts as president haven’t caused headaches for Missouri Republicans.
Trump’s tariffs and federal job cuts have sparked backlash among some business groups and Missouri voters. U.S. Rep. Mark Alford, R-Cass County, encountered a hostile crowd at a Belton town hall recently, primarily about the effect of layoffs within the federal workforce.
Trump also walked back some of his more unpopular actions, including asking for some fired workers to come back on the job.
“The federal government is too big. The question is: How big is too big?” said U.S. Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem, who chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee. “And whenever you start attempting to reduce the size of the federal government, Bill Clinton had the same issue whenever he was president, it can have unintended consequences. So I'm sure at some point there's going to be situations that are unintended and they're going to have to be rectified.”
Smith, though, praised Trump for an executive order aimed at having federal employees work in offices, as opposed to at home.
Protecting Medicaid
For Hawley, one of the big tests ahead for whether Republicans can maintain their gains among trade union members and working-class voters is if they can deliver tangible policy accomplishments over the next few years.
He also said that Republicans should steer clear of cutting Medicaid, including forgoing doing away with the enhanced federal Medicaid expansion match that could prove to be financially consequential to states like Missouri.
“Now if they want to do work requirements. I'm all for that. I think that's fantastic. But I'm not going to vote for something that ends up cutting benefits for people who are working and who qualify for Medicaid,” said Hawley, pointing to how 21% of Missourians are either on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program or CHIP.
Some conservative House members are pushing for larger spending cuts. And paring down Medicaid may be the most attractive option, especially if reductions to Medicare and Social Security are off the table.
Still, Schmitt also said it’s unlikely that Republicans will try to cut the Medicaid expansion match in legislation aimed at cutting taxes, restricting immigration and bolstering energy production. That’s widely known as the reconciliation bill.
“One thing that's been, everybody's been pretty consistent on whether it's Medicaid, Medicare or Social Security, it's not going to impact benefits,” Schmitt said. “I think it's really programmatically, how do you do things to maybe save some money along the way, and then ultimately allowing states to have more flexibility with their models?”
Smith said Trump made it clear that any cuts to Medicaid or Medicare would be around making the program more efficient or not providing access to immigrants without legal status.
While Onder joined U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Ozark, in criticizing the overall cost of Medicaid expansion, he too doesn’t expect the reconciliation bill to feature reductions in how much the federal government provides to states to cover the expansion population.
“I have argued from the very beginning, since 2010, that the 90-10 match forever is unsustainable at a time when the federal government is in such a budget and debt problem,” Onder said. “I think eventually it's going to have to be addressed. But in the short term, what I think we'll see in reconciliation is that we can save over $100 or $200 billion by just checking eligibility on a regular basis.”
