This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, March 17, 2011 - The thousands of Japanese fleeing the area around the crippled Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant are very much on the minds of area residents this week, but many also have another concern: Could it happen here?
The epicenter of the great earthquakes of 1811-1812 was 200 miles from the site of Ameren Missouri's Callaway Nuclear Power Plant, 10 miles southeast of Fulton, Mo., and 100 miles west of St. Louis. The epicenters of more recent, minor earthquakes have been as close as 50 miles. Either scenario could potentially cause damage.
That history was figured into the construction of Callaway during the early 1980s. According to an email from Region IV of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), planning must take into account "the most severe natural phenomena historically reported for the site and surrounding area. The NRC then adds a margin for error to account for the historical data's limited accuracy."
But even hindsight isn't 20-20, according to Gary Mueller, a nuclear engineering professor at Missouri University of Science and Technology in Rolla.
"Even though they built it based on that history, you can't plan for everything," Mueller said.
No Protection From Murphy's Law
The Callaway facility has protective features not only against earthquakes, but also tornadoes and incoming airplanes, Mueller said. In the pre-9/11 era during which the power plant was built, safeguarding it from airplane hits was done not with terrorism in mind, but in case a malfunctioning plane veered off course.
During any type of emergency, the plant would be shut down, but cooling the radioactive material to prevent a meltdown would still require a power source. If Callaway lost on-site and off-site power, backup systems including diesel generators and batteries come into play, according to Mueller. If they fail, there are backup-backup generators, he said.
In a worst-case scenario in which all power is lost, there are "many barriers" to hold in leaking radioactive material, starting with the fuel rods. The reactor vessel containing the core is another shield. Still another is the containment building holding the vessel, something not in place at the Chernobyl plant.
But nothing is fool-proof.
"Does this mean they can't be breached? Of course they can," Mueller said. "Murphy's Law could come along and give us three different disasters at the same time. But it's very unlikely."
Ameren declined to be interviewed for this article. But earlier this week, Scott Bond, Ameren's manager of nuclear development, told the Beacon, "Callaway is a safe, reliable plant designed for the most severe natural phenomena -- earthquakes, tornadoes -- that this area has ever seen, and there are margins on top of that," Bond said.
But for Virginia Harris, Missouri Sierra Club executive committee member, the words "safe" and "nuclear power" don't belong in the same sentence, ever.
"Everyone admits that the fuel itself is dangerous," Harris said.
What Happens In An Emergency?
According to Ameren's website, Callaway participates in a full-scale emergency exercise every two years -- the minimum under NRC regulations -- with smaller drills in between. Results from the latest such drill in November 2010 (the link is to a pdf), show Callaway receiving high marks. The NRC also requires annual inspections and for an emergency plan to be filed with the commission (to find NRC documents go to https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams/web-based.html and click on "Begin Web-based ADAMS Search" -- ADAMS stands for Agencywide Documents Access and Management System).
In Ameren's web page on emergency preparedness, the company states that residents within 10 miles of Callaway will be notified during a disaster to stay at home, also called "shelter in place" or to evacuate. An evacuation route map is provided.
Information sent by the NRC states that evacuation is usually preferred. But under certain conditions, it may be safer to stay home and indoors to keep the radiation dosage to a minimum.
When evacuation is necessary, it isn't always limited to a 10-mile area, according to Callaway County emergency management director Michelle Kidwell. It varies with the situation.
"We may evacuate two miles or as far out as 50," Kidwell said.
The Callaway County emergency plan for a nuclear power plant accident calls for notifying residents by radio, television, warning sirens and telephone. Those in the deaf community are alerted by radios that flash lights when an emergency occurs. Emergency information is available on calendars and in the local phone book.
St. Louis 'Extremely Unlikely' To Be Affected
In an emergency, even if radiation did leak from the Callaway plant or had to be released to relieve pressure and prevent explosion, as is sometimes the case, it would likely be equivalent only to the amount "in a chest X-ray," according to Mueller.
"Even in the Three Mile Island accident, which melted the core, the amount of radioactive material released was very minimal and it was contained within the containment building," Mueller said. "I would anticipate that's exactly what would happen with Callaway."
He pointed out that even at 100 times the dose of the naturally occurring radiation we get every day, the effects would be minimal. The possibility of radiation affecting people 100 miles away in St. Louis, is "extremely unlikely," Mueller said.
Workers inside the plant would get the brunt of seeping radiation, according to Susan Langhorst, Washington University's radiation safety officer. Langhorst said that compared to people in St. Louis and most of the country, Denver residents are exposed to one-quarter more radiation every year due to the elevation. Yet, the incidence of cancer in Denver is lower than the national average.
Even so, radiation exposure should never be taken lightly.
"Radiation seems very scary to everyone and we do operate under principle that we must assume that any amount may be potentially harmful," Langhorst said.
