This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon: August 6, 2008 - Sarah Steelman fought the Republican establishment -- and the establishment's candidate, U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, won.
The margin was slim, though. The state treasurer's I'm-just-a-mom populist approach combined with he's-just-another-Washington-pol negative ads brought her to within 5 percentage points. If Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder had not withdrawn in the interest of party unity, Steelman might well have prevailed. Certainly Kinder would have taken more votes from Hulshof than from her. Hulshof owes Kinder and, sometime in the not too distant future, one can predict Kinder will collect.
Hulshof won by dominating his home congressional district, running up figures like 84 percent in Boone County (Columbia) and 93 percent in Marion County (Hannibal). In the remainder of the state, Steelman ran even with him or better. Hulshof still lacks an adequate statewide presence, a flaw he must correct swiftly to have a chance of winning in November.
Hulshof also faces a challenge unifying the Republican Party and moving closer to the center. He cannot afford to have the Steelman supporters walk away mad nor will his outspoken opposition to embryonic stem cell research, red meat for the social conservatives dominating Republican primaries, play well in the general election in Columbia, Kansas City and St. Louis. Gov. Matt Blunt successfully walked the I'm-pro-life-and-pro-stem-cell tightrope but Hulshof has chosen to stay with the anti-stem-cell contingent. That will have political costs among moderate Republicans and independents.
Meanwhile Democratic nominee Attorney General Jay Nixon has potent assets: he had no significant primary opposition, has held statewide office for 16 years and has had more than a year to test drive his campaign apparatus.
Despite apparently winning the Democratic nomination for attorney general by a very narrow margin, state Sen. Chris Koster emerges a wounded candidate, perhaps mortally so. He does not want for enemies including an ex-wife who helped fund third-party ads questioning his record. Republicans see him as an opportunist for abandoning their party and many Democrats share the view that the move was based more on ambition than principle.
The second place finisher, state Rep. Margaret Donnelly, fell just a thousand votes short. That will create even more attention toward an obscure candidate, Molly Williams, who did not actively campaign but still received more than 23,000 votes. Was she a stalking horse sponsored by pro-Koster forces to attract some women votes away from Donnelly? Whatever the answer, many Donnelly backers believe so and are likely to carry a grudge against Koster.
Meanwhile, the Republican nominee, state Sen. Michael Gibbons, was unopposed and is unscathed. A statewide Democratic candidate must carry St. Louis County to win. Despite growing up in the St. Louis area with a well-known father (journalist Rich Koster), the son did not do especially well there, trailing Donnelly by 20 percentage points. Gibbons has represented the Kirkwood area in the General Assembly for almost 20 years, so he should hold his own on his home turf.
State Rep. Clint Zweifel kept his rising-star reputation intact by winning the Democratic nomination for state treasurer. Arnold Mayor Mark Powell came within 4 percentage points of Zweifel, despite being outspent by about 10-to-one. Although Powell probably benefited some from having been the Democratic candidate for this office in 2004, it is still another demonstration that one recipe for doing well in a down-ballot statewide race that receives little press coverage is to (a) be listed first on the ballot and (b) have a generic all-American name. In 2002, remember, Al Henson, a convicted felon, used this approach to defeat Jay Kanzler, a respected St. Louis attorney, for the Republican nomination for state auditor.
Politics has always been a family business in the United States, including Missouri. Carrying on that tradition yesterday in the city of St. Louis were Chris Carter, son of the late state Sen. Paula Carter, and Tishaura Jones, daughter of former city Comptroller Virvus Jones. Both won the Democratic nomination in state representative races that will be uncontested in November, making them certain members of the next General Assembly.
In St. Louis County, Cole McNary, son of former County Executive Gene McNary, finished first in a six-way contest for the GOP nomination in a West County state representative district. Although McNary will have a Democratic opponent in November, he is certainly the favorite in what is a solid Republican area.
Family connections are not always sure winners, however. In two other state representative elections, Michael Favazza, son of city Circuit Court Clerk Mariano Favazza, lost to Michele Kratky, and Michael Roberts Jr., son of the former alderman with the same name, was trounced by incumbent Rachel Storch.
Terry Jones is a polling expert and professor at the University of Missouri at St. Louis.