This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, March 18, 2009 - Selling Illinois taxpayers on a 50 percent income tax increase in the middle of a recession will take some serious persuasion.
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn started that process with Wednesday's budget address to a joint session of the General Assembly when he characterized his tax increase proposal as tax "reform" that would ensure the lowest-income Illinoisans would pay less in state income taxes. Only after family income hits about $61,000 would the tax burden begin to rise, he said.
Nevertheless, Quinn's got a long way to go to push his plan through the General Assembly, said Christopher Mooney, professor of political science at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
"The legislators are going to be very nervous. They don't want to face an election opponent who puts on the flyer, 'Voted for a 50 percent tax increase," or 'Voted for the largest tax increase in Illinois history,'" Mooney said.
If they are nervous, they didn't show it Wednesday. Both Democratic and Republican legislators proved to be enthusiastic supporters of his speech, interrupting Quinn numerous times for applause, sometimes even boisterous applause, as he outlined his plan for closing a state budget gap that could be as big as $11.5 billion while putting people back to work, getting the economy back on track and still spending more on education and health care. He proposed raising state income tax to 4.5 percent from 3.0 percent, as well as raising other taxes.
Rep. Mike Bost (R-Carbondale) admitted he applauded now and then, although he took offense at the governor labeling as "mean-spirited" legislators who believe in cutting spending before raising taxes. "It's not mean-spirited to want a sensible balanced budget," said a clearly miffed Bost.
House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago), longtime nemesis of disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the father of Illinois Attorney General and possible 2010 gubernatorial contender Lisa Madigan, watched the speech alongside Senate President John Cullerton, another Chicago Democrat. Throughout, they shared whispers and smiles, something Madigan rarely has done in public and never would have done at all if Blagojevich still was governor.
After the speech, in a live interview on public television's Illinois Lawmakers program, Madigan was asked about his relationship with Quinn. "It's excellent -- 6,000 percent better than the last guy, who shall remain nameless," Madigan said.
Although Madigan insisted that Illinois taxpayers would need to be convinced their political leaders have wiped out state government corruption before they accept higher taxes, several sources noted privately that a tax increase passed on Quinn's watch could be just what Daddy ordered for his daughter. If Quinn takes the heat, passes the tax increase and fixes the state budget woes, Lisa Madigan, who already has publicly panned the idea of a tax increase, could arrive in Springfield with a clean slate.
Charles N. Wheeler III, director of the public affairs reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield and a keen long-time observer of state politics, noted: "Historically, Madigan has not been against tax increases. He moved the legislation for [former Gov. James] Thompson in '89 and for [former Gov. Jim] Edgar in '97. Cullerton will be for it, too. But it would be helpful if some Republicans went along with it."
Bost and others noted that things have changed in Springfield under Quinn. "It is different. If he's willing to sit down and work with us, we'll work with him."
Ralph Martire, executive director of the Chicago-based Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and a proponent of a plan that would have raised income taxes and cut property taxes to reform education funding in Illinois, said Quinn's speech set a good tone for the coming budget negotiations.
"It's about time we had a governor with the integrity to tell voters what they need to hear instead of what they want to hear. How long has it been since that happened? Ogilvie?" He was referring to Richard Ogilvie, who served as Illinois' governor from 1968 to 1972.
Martire praised Quinn's plan to increase state spending on public works projects to help put people back to work. A research report called "Moving Forward" produced by his think tank says that cutting spending in a recession could lead to the loss of as many as 128,000 additional state jobs. Increasing spending could create that many new jobs, the report says.
In his speech, Quinn "also made it a clear point that it's time we acted like adults and worked together," Martire said.
But it will take more than straight talk to convince some people a tax increase is the best way to fix the state's gaping budget hole. John Tillman, chairman of the Chicago-based Illinois Policy Institute, a nonpartisan group that believes in limited government, disputed some of Quinn's tax numbers.
The governor said that an Illinois family of four making up to $61,000 would see a tax cut under his proposal. Quinn’s plan would raise the income tax rate by 50 percent but then increase the personal exemption from $2,000 to $6,000 to ease the burden on lower-income taxpayers.
Tillman said his analysis shows that most people in Illinois will pay more under Quinn's plan. Tillman said average Illinois families have just 2.65 people, meaning they would not benefit as much from the exemption as a four-person family. Single taxpayers would pay more under Quinn’s plan even if they make as little as $17,000 a year, Tillman said.
Still, he said, the plan is likely to pass the Democratic-controlled Legislature "if taxpayers stay silent and buy these arguments."
Another thing in Quinn's favor: There are two years until legislators face reelection.
"This is the best time if they want to get anything bad passed," said Mooney. "They can't do it next year. Passing a tax increase in a election year is crazy. Crazier anyway."
Cindy Richards is a freelance writer who has long covered Illinois politics.