It wouldn’t be a shocking news bulletin to say that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is going to win in Missouri, while Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris will capture Illinois’ electoral votes.
But even though Missouri isn’t getting as much attention as swing states like Pennsylvania, it hasn’t stopped people like Paul Scott from helping Trump’s efforts in the Show-Me State. Scott owns a construction company in Odessa — right outside Kansas City. He’s spent time this year putting up big Trump signs along Interstate 70.
Scott isn’t doing this because Trump is in any danger of losing Missouri or ruby-red Lafayette County. Rather, he wants to send a message to people who travel through the state.
“I think we have over 60,000 a day that drive here on I-70,” Scott said. “A lot of them are charter buses or vans full of people. I just think there's so many people that we could reach that say: ‘OK, there's someone else that thinks like we do.’ Or they don't even ever see a Trump sign in these other states.”
For Illinois and Missouri residents interviewed for the Politically Speaking Hour on St. Louis on the Air, contributing money or time to help Trump and Harris has less to do with changing the likely outcome of this year’s election. Some want to help downballot candidates or statewide ballot initiatives. Others feel a need to be part of something that’s larger than the place where they live.
“I've lived in Missouri my entire life. I ache for the day that we might get a candidate or a set of candidates that feel like they're a little bit more substantial or have more of a chance in the state,” said St. Louis resident Joe Trammel, who donated money to Harris’ campaign. “But you know, the state of Missouri isn't like the only thing going on. I do care about the presidency. I do care about who's at the head of the executive branch in the kind of decisions they're making at the federal level.”
Swing states no more
Believe it or not, there was a time in recent history when Missouri and Illinois were up for grabs in the presidential election cycle. But it’s been a while.
Democratic presidential candidates have soundly beaten their Republican counterparts in Illinois since 1992. And while Missouri was a highly sought-after state up until 2008, the GOP hasn’t had much trouble winning the state’s electoral votes since the 2012 election.
Gregg Keller is a GOP political consultant who worked on presidential campaigns in Missouri. After Republican John McCain bested Democrat Barack Obama by less than 4,000 votes in 2008, Keller said it sent a message to national Democrats that it wasn’t worth it anymore to invest time or money to win the state’s electoral votes.
“I think that going forward, Democrats were saying to themselves: ‘OK, we don't need to put all these resources. Missouri is no longer do or die. We have other paths to victory, given the Electoral College nationwide. We don't have to go through Missouri. It doesn't need to be existential for us,’” Keller said.
To be sure, living in a swing state can come with some annoyances — like wall-to-wall television and radio ads. But it can also produce memorable candidate visits. In 1996, Republican Bob Dole held a big rally in front of the Gateway Arch in St. Louis. And 12 years later, Obama held an even larger event in front of the iconic St. Louis monument.
Columbia resident Sarah Medcalf fondly recalls Obama holding a huge rally right before Election Day on the University of Missouri-Columbia’s campus. Even though she pays attention to politics enough to know that Harris won’t match Obama’s 2008 performance this year, she added she was still enthused enough to donate money to the Democratic vice president after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race this summer.
“I grew up in Wyoming, and then I've lived most of my life in Missouri, so I'm very aware of what it's like to live in a red state and have a, you know, a blue or progressive agenda,” Medcalf said. “The way I see it is, as time goes on and more people come to live in Missouri with different ideas, I don't think that Missouri is a solid red state. I think that it has the opportunity to go purple, but I also think that it's going to take time and effort from people like me and from other progressives who live here to keep showing up.”
Downballot impact
Medcalf is onto something: In Missouri especially, the presidential race often plays a major role in contests for statewide and state legislative offices. If Harris loses Missouri by a smaller margin than expected, it may help Democratic contenders for governor or the General Assembly — or assist in passing a ballot measure to legalize abortion.
And for St. Clair County Republican Party Chairman Michael Butler, a better-than-expected performance from Trump in his county could continue to build GOP strength throughout the Metro East.
“The most important thing to me, really, is ensuring that our values as Republicans, as conservatives, that our values are being represented at every level of government from the county board level all the way up to president,” Butler said.
St. Louis resident Anna Eggemeyer said even though she would love to see Harris hold an event in Missouri, she added she understands why her campaign needs to focus on places like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
“It's not really the system that either candidate created, but it's the one that they have to work within,” Eggemeyer said. “I still enthusiastically volunteer to promote this ticket because the kind of future that I want for myself, my family, and my friends is the kind that this campaign is presenting. I simply do not see how the majority of us can lead happy, healthy and unregulated lives if Trump/Vance assume the highest office in the land.”
Keller, the GOP political consultant, said there are also cultural impulses that pull people in non-swing states to contribute to the presidential candidate of their choice.
“I think that American politics, like politics everywhere, is tribal,” Keller said. “And people are members of a particular political team, and they want to take part in that, whether it matters in their own particular state or not. They want to feel as if they are part of that fight.”
“St. Louis on the Air” brings you the stories of St. Louis and the people who live, work and create in our region. The show is produced by Ulaa Kuziez, Miya Norfleet, Emily Woodbury, Danny Wicentowski, Elaine Cha and Alex Heuer. The audio engineer is Aaron Doerr and the production intern is Jada Jones.
