Cale Riggs may have played a part in moving St. Louis County further into the Democratic column.
Riggs lives in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, which takes in parts of central and western St. Louis County that used to be solidly Republican. Because of his background growing up in a part of Texas where the Southern Baptist Convention influenced politics and culture, Riggs tended to vote for the GOP when he was younger.
But he began to rethink that once Donald Trump ran for president in 2016. He voted third party that year. And then he voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. This year, he’s supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
“Trump came along, and it just kind of shattered my worldview about those things,” Riggs said. “I did not see anything about Jesus or Christianity or the values that we hold in terms of caring for the poor, reaching out to the marginalized, trying to find places in our city where we can just make things better by serving and loving people. None of those things really were reflected in Trump and the things that he cared about.”
Trump undoubtedly accelerated Missouri’s drift toward the Republican Party, turning historically Democratic rural and exurban counties bright red. But the exception is in St. Louis County, where Democrats have gained substantial ground both on the national and state legislative level. And Democrats are bullish that a backlash over Trump and restrictive abortion policies could help the state party gain strength for future elections.
But, others are skeptical that either Harris or a measure to legalize abortion will provide a boost down ballot. And those factors may not be enough to flip Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District to the Democrats, especially since the district contains Franklin and Warren counties, both of which Trump won in 2020 by more than 40 points.
Part of a national trend
Jean Evans has seen firsthand the change in historically Republican parts of St. Louis County.
Evans is a former state lawmaker who represented 2nd Congressional District towns such as Manchester and Valley Park. When she was going door-to-door in 2016 and 2018, she often noticed that voters were willing to vote Republican — but often had political beliefs that align with Democrats.
“People would say: ‘Well, I'm a Republican. I always vote Republican, but we need to do something about the guns,’” Evans said. “Or 'I'm a Republican, but we need to support Planned Parenthood,' things that my colleagues in Jeff City don't hear in a lot of the rural areas. And I just noticed it was, it was a little bit different perspective.”
Evans’ seat eventually flipped to the Democrats after she resigned to become executive director of the Missouri Republican Party. That came about as the 2nd Congressional District, which had been in GOP hands since the early 1990s, transformed into highly competitive political terrain.
In 2020, Trump and Biden basically tied in the 2nd Congressional District — thanks to Biden’s strength in usually Republican areas like Chesterfield. And Democrats are bullish that Harris will do well in central and western St. Louis County on Nov. 5.
“I do think that it's a slow progression to the Democrat side,” said Richmond Heights resident Katrina Dalby, who grew up in Chesterfield. “The people I have talked to, even some family members I've talked to, who have been Republican their entire lives, are for the first time voting blue in this election due to leadership in the Republican Party.”
Part of the change could also be generational. Evans said she found that more people were moving into the suburbs from the heavily Democratic city of St. Louis, especially after they had kids. And younger voters have more left-leaning opinions on things like LGBTQ rights or abortion.
Shannon Bee saw that change in Kirkwood, which like Chesterfield used to be fairly Republican. For Bee, Trump played a big role in making that city in the 2nd Congressional District solidly blue.
“And then I also think that a lot of people are tired of Trump,” Bee said. “It's exhausting.”
Abortion as an accelerator
In interviews with 2nd District voters planning to vote Democratic this year, one issue besides Trump appears to be attracting their attention: abortion rights.
Missouri banned most abortions after Roe v. Wade fell. And Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District provided the second most valid signatures to get a ballot measure legalizing the procedure on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Cindy Clark lives in St. Louis County and grew up in what she called a conservative household. The abortion ban is playing a major role in driving her toward the Democrats.
“I think we need to really take the taboo out of the word abortion, because it is health care,” Clark said. “And, you know, sometimes you don't realize that until you're faced with that decision, or there is no decision. It's just a necessity. At that point, it's no longer a choice of, do I want to do this? Or do I not? You have to do it because you could die.”
In 2021, Clark had a miscarriage and needed a dilation and curettage, or D&C, to remove fetal tissue. And she said her situation was fairly similar to what happened to Amber Thurman, a Georgia woman who died after a hospital delayed giving her a D&C.
“I grew up in a more conservative household, which is where my Republican views came from,” Clark said. “But we're always told that Republicans are the party of limited government. Well, why are they now invading our doctor's offices, invading our classrooms, invading all these nuances in our life? That's not limited government. To me, that's government control. And I don't want anyone making health care decisions for myself or for anyone else.”
Harris has made abortion rights a central element of her campaign, and it may play a role in expanding her coalition of college-educated white voters. Democrat Ray Hartmann, who is running against GOP incumbent Ann Wagner in the 2nd District this year, is also hoping Amendment 3 benefits his candidacy.
“There will be record turnout,” Hartmann said. “Because in a red state, going to the ballot box is the only way that women and men can protect reproductive freedom.”
Wagner said she considers herself “strongly pro-life,” but added “when you're dealing with the issue of life and choice, you have to come at it from a standpoint of common sense of compassion and consensus.”
“I don't agree with the laws on the books as they are presently,” said Wagner, adding that she supports exceptions allowing abortion in the case of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. “The states are going to decide and it's in the hands of the voters. I hope that my fellow Missourians will join me in rejecting Amendment 3. I think they need to make sure that they are educated, well educated, on the actual wording. It's confusing. It's overly broad.”
Downballot benefit?
Even if 2nd District voters back Harris and Amendment 3, there’s no assurances that Missouri’s Democratic candidates will benefit.
Public polling has shown that voters may end up backing Amendment 3 but also voting for Republican candidates. Wagner outran Trump significantly in 2020, winning the St. Louis County portion of her district in a hotly contested race against Democrat Jill Schupp.
Lindsay Brand, a Maplewood resident with relatives who live in St. Louis County, said she could see that split ticket trend occurring next week.
“I think that women may go to the polls and quietly vote ‘yes’ on Amendment 3, but I don't know if they're going to change,” Brand said. “Voting for Democrats is just seen as a thing you don't do. Like, they're just East Coast or West Coast. They are out of touch. There’s just this … very much a demonization of the Democratic politicians that I don't know that they're going to get over.”
Evans, the former state representative, also said that abortion rights supporters shouldn’t assume that voters in historically Republican parts of St. Louis County will support Amendment 3.
She also cautioned Democrats about abortion rights being a primary motivator for suburban voters to go to the polls this year.
“Two years ago in the midterms, I think that abortion was probably the No. 1 issue for a lot of people,” Evans said. “But I think it's fallen behind because with the economy, people are getting crushed. That’s all I hear from people is how expensive things are. And even people who are doing pretty well are saying: ‘Man, we got to cut back on some things, because everything's so expensive.”
Regardless of whether Hartmann can flip the 2nd District, Richmond Heights resident Jim Malloy says Democrats like him may not have to win a specific race to showcase a major demographic trend both in Missouri and around the country.
“You can still make a statement with your vote,” Malloy said. “And that is going to affect elections in the future and what the parties at large are going to invest in these elections and how the social construction of our district works.”
“St. Louis on the Air” brings you the stories of St. Louis and the people who live, work and create in our region. The show is produced by Ulaa Kuziez, Miya Norfleet, Emily Woodbury, Danny Wicentowski, Elaine Cha and Alex Heuer. The audio engineer is Aaron Doerr and the production intern is Jada Jones.
