Missouri Democrats were fairly bullish that 2024 would be the election cycle when they would finally gain some ground — especially with a measure on the general election ballot legalizing abortion.
But voters dashed those hopes last month. Not only did Democratic candidates get blown out in statewide contests for governor and the U.S. Senate, the party failed to gain any ground in the Missouri General Assembly. That left Democratic activists and voters frustrated, especially with Republicans reclaiming the presidency and the U.S. Senate.
“People in Missouri, by their voting patterns on referendums, like progressive policies but not the Democratic Party,” said St. Louis resident and Democratic voter Jamie Genovese. “They know the party won’t follow through on those policies, it certainly doesn’t at national level.”
During an appearance on the Politically Speaking Hour on St. Louis on the Air, Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Russ Carnahan said Democrats everywhere faced headwinds thanks to President-elect Donald Trump’s win over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee.
Harris lost Missouri to Trump by about 18.5 percentage points — a margin so large it makes it basically impossible for Democratic candidates running for statewide office to win. That’s because the result of the presidential race usually affects downballot contests.
“There's still some prejudice about African American candidates, still some prejudice about female candidates,” Carnahan said. “She had to run probably the shortest presidential campaign in American political history. And in many ways, she did that well with record fundraising. I think that shortened campaign made it very difficult for her to get better known.”
Carnahan also highlighted some more positive parts of the election cycle for Democrats, including better recruitment for state legislative candidates and better coordination with the party’s House and Senate campaign committees.
“At the end of the day in this election, we didn't gain any legislative seats. We held the seats we had,” Carnahan said.
Focus on suburbs or reach out to rural voters?
Perhaps the biggest issue for Missouri Democrats is that while they remain dominant in St. Louis and Kansas City and have made gains in some suburban counties, they continue to falter in rural areas and lose out to Republicans in exurban parts of the state like St. Charles and Jefferson counties.
Columbia resident Reece Ellis said that while Missouri Democrats should try to close the gap in rural counties to help statewide candidates, the party would be better served trying to build momentum in more populated areas that could be more amenable to the party’s ideas.
“The Missouri GOP does not and would not expend significant resources running serious campaigns or recruiting genuinely serious candidates in St. Louis city, where Democrats are dominant. Similarly, Democrats should focus on building strength in places like St. Louis County, St. Charles, Jefferson, Clay, Jackson, Platte, Buchanan, Cole and Greene counties,” Reece said. “If Democrats aren’t even winning suburbs and exurbs, they will never ever win meaningful rural support, and Missouri will be a one-party state like our southern neighbors instead of at least sometimes competitive like Kansas or Iowa.”
Other Democratic voters, like Kansas City resident Molly Bruns, said it would be a mistake for the party not to reach out to rural communities.
“I don't think there's been an effort, especially from the Democratic establishment, to actually have grassroots movements in small communities, like Branson, like Hannibal, like Herman, to actually bolster candidates in those small, small seats that are deemed unimportant,” Bruns said. “But that's how you build trust in those communities, and that's how you shift voter bases to then win larger elections.”
For his part, Carnahan acknowledged that Missouri Democrats don’t have unlimited amounts of money — and have to prioritize how they spend it in places where they have the best chances of winning.
But also said that there are benefits to strengthening local Democratic organizations in places where the GOP is dominant.
“Our statewide candidates also fare substantially better where you have all or most of your state legislative candidates filled,” Carnahan said. “So I think it's a both/and in this case — that you have to show up in those rural areas, even in the areas that are really tough for Democrats.”
A damaged brand?
Another major problem for Missouri Democrats is that the national party isn’t popular in parts of the state in which they need to make gains.
One segment where this became especially acute is with some members of trade unions. Some members of organized labor told St. Louis Public Radio earlier this year that the party’s stances on immigration policy and gun control prompted them to consider GOP candidates. That manifested itself this year when Republican candidates easily won historically union strongholds, like Jefferson County.
“I think they'll likely have to work strongly on rebuilding their relationship with labor unions and their blue-collar workers,” said Kansas City resident Phillip Kinder. “Seems like they have lost a lot of support among white working-class voters.”
Missouri’s drift toward Republicans also prompted national Democratic groups that usually supply a lot of money and organizational manpower to skip Missouri. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee declined to help Democrat Lucas Kunce in his race against U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, while the Democratic Governors Association provided little support to House Minority Leader Crystal Quade’s gubernatorial bid.
“Political polarization is difficult to overcome, but a stronger national presence and their investment in Missouri are crucial,” said Ferguson resident James Turner III. “The Republican war chest is massive, and without competing financially, other strategies will not achieve their full potential.”
Carnahan said the DNC did provide some money to Missouri Democrats to help run the party’s presidential preference primary and to help with the fall campaign.
“I think it's a cumulative thing, but we're also not a top-tier state. I mean, we're not, but we aspire to be,” Carnahan said. “And looking at great examples of other states that have done this, Minnesota is probably one of my favorite examples. Because not many years ago, their politics in Minnesota looked a lot like Missouri today. And over a few election cycles, they turned it around. They got the governorship back. They flipped the legislature back. And so there's some good models out there for us to follow, and we're learning from that.”
“St. Louis on the Air” brings you the stories of St. Louis and the people who live, work and create in our region. The show is produced by Miya Norfleet, Emily Woodbury, Danny Wicentowski, Elaine Cha and Alex Heuer. Jada Jones is our production assistant. The audio engineer is Aaron Doerr.
