St. Louis Cardinals fans had to deal with the worst kind of disappointment last year: watching their team lose 90 games and end up in last place in the National League Central Division. It marked the first time the team had a losing season in 16 years.
During the offseason, the team added veteran starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson and gave fans hope that the biggest weakness had been addressed.
But spring training saw injuries to Gray and hitters Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson. The team opens its season Thursday afternoon in Los Angeles, starting a three-game series against the Dodgers.
St. Louis Public Radio’s Jonathan Ahl spoke to Rob Rains, editor at STLsportspage.com, about the upcoming season and what fans are expecting of their team.
This interview was edited for clarity and length.
Jonathan Ahl: Last year was a profound disappointment for the Cardinals and for their fans. What's your outlook for this year?
Rob Rains: I would hope that they would be better than last year because you got to think it's hard to be as bad as they were a year ago. But then again, when you're starting the year with as many players on the injured list as the Cardinals are going to have, it's these guys that you expected to be kind of your key performers led by the pitcher that you signed to be your ace. It's kind of just really a big unknown at this point is how long those guys are going to be out and how they're going to survive this tough stretch of games at the beginning of the season before they get those guys back.
Ahl: Even when those guys are back and they are healthy, do you think the Cardinals did a good-enough job addressing their weak spots over the off-season?
Rains: I think they're definitely better than they were a year ago. I think you look at Lynn and Gibson, the three free agent starters that they signed, they all have experience, they've all had success in the Major Leagues. They are all what you call “innings eaters,” which means they should be able to go deeper in games than some of the starting pitchers did a year ago. Which in turn should make the bullpen better. I like a couple of the arms that they picked up in the bullpen, that I think will make them better too. There's no question they should be better than they were a year ago. Trying to improve on a last-place finish, how can they not be better? But I don't know if they did enough to really kind of say that they're a pennant contender. Maybe they did enough to win the division. But then, you know, what does that mean in October? So I think that's, that's the question that we really don't know the answer to. They'll be better, maybe good enough to win the division. But then I don't know if they're better or good enough to go farther than that in the playoffs.
Ahl: Last year, one of the big things they faced was being without Yadier Molina for the first time in a long time. The new catcher got off to an incredibly rocky start. What is your confidence level that Wilson Contreras can produce both in terms of hitting and also in handling the pitching staff?
Rains: The second half of last year, especially offensively, he did really, really well, and I think he's accepted the challenge. That first year is always a rough transition, even if he didn't have to replace Yadier Molina. Look at the first year that Nolan Arenado had in St. Louis, the first year that Paul Goldschmidt had in St. Louis. Anytime a veteran like that changes clubs that first year, a lot of times can be kind of tough transition. So I think having that year under his belt will really help. He worked hard this winter to try and make himself a better catcher and do some of the things the Cardinals want him to do differently. Even though he's got some new pitchers that he's working with, he's working with a lot of veteran pitchers who know their own abilities and know their own games. So I think it's going to be a better year for him.
Ahl: Looking at the construction of this roster, how much do you think the Cardinals are banking on key players having bounce-back or even career years compared to expecting average production?
Rains: Don't kid yourself. This team is still built around Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. If the club is going to bounce back and be the team that everybody kind of wants them to be, those two guys have to have big years. But the club has a lot of good young talent that I think can have good seasons and be the kind of players that this club wants to move forward with for a long time. But right now this club is going to rise or fall based on how far Arenado and Goldschmidt can take them.
Ahl: How much patience do you think the fan base has after last season?
Rains: That's going to be a good question. I know that the season ticket sales were not as good and did not get the renewal rate that they usually get or that they expected to get. People are saying, “OK, let's go out and see it on the field.” The problem is they've got a monster schedule to start the season with seven games on the road in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and three in San Diego. Then they come home and play Miami, which was a playoff team last year, and then they got three against Arizona. The first 16 games of the season are really, really tough. And again, you're dealing with playing those games without some of the guys that you're expected to be in your starting lineup or in your rotation. Maybe fans realize that for the first part of the season, if they get off to a poor start they'll give them the benefit of the doubt because of that. But if they're sitting here in June or July, and they're still kind of languishing down, I think fans are going to be a little bit upset.
Ahl: Looking at the competition in the division, the most popular takes seem to be that the Cubs held serve in their roster construction. The Brewers took a big step back, and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are young teams that are really banking on young players to have breakout years. Do you get the sense that maybe the Cardinals tried to construct a roster that was good enough considering that the division is generally considered to be weak?
Rains: Well, one of the fans' criticisms I think of this team in the last few years is that they've always looked at it as if they want to build a team that can win the division and then take their chances when they get in October. I think for a lot of fans and that's probably what they've done again this year. It will definitely be an interesting race, and I think the Cardinals are good enough to compete in the division, but I just don't know how much farther than that they can go with the roster that they have.
Ahl: What's your take on how “The Cardinal Way” is useful or not useful in terms of where we see baseball right now, where there are five or six teams that are spending money like crazy, and then you have the second tier of teams that are trying to be good enough to get to the playoffs and see what happens?
Rains: “The Cardinal Way” is really just about playing smart baseball and playing fundamental baseball and teaching the game the right way at the minor league level. And the problem the Cardinals have had is that they've had a lot of really good, career baseball men who've left the organization or retired or moved on to other teams for one reason or another. So I think they've kind of lost their feeling for a little bit of how to teach the Cardinal Way. They have to draft well and develop well, and that's the way that you could build a team that can possibly compete with those teams that are going to spend a lot more money than the Cardinals are going to spend.
Ahl: How much pressure do you think is on manager Oli Marmol this year?
Rains: Not as much as there would have been if he hadn't signed a two-year contract extension. Because of the injuries, because of the tough schedule, they didn't want this team to get off to a slow start in April and have all the pressure on him and have people call for managerial change. And that could still happen. He's still under pressure. I mean, this team has to win. If this team has another 90-loss season, and I'm not saying they're going to, but if they do, they're going to be massive changes, and it's not going to be just limited to the manager.
